MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (Wednesday, August 27 at 06:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -154 | +130 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (102) | +1.5 (-123) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Record | 72–60 | 60–71 |
| Lines: BetRivers, Bovada, Caesars, FanDuel +2 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore enters this matchup analysis on the back of a 1-4 stretch in its last five games, averaging 4.2 runs per contest, while Boston has gone 4-1 with 4.8 runs per game. Despite the recent disparity, the Red Sox have been inconsistent on the road all season, and the Orioles’ lineup profiles better in situational edges at home. With both clubs combining for just 9.0 runs per game recently, this contest sets up cleanly for a disciplined MLB prediction that favors the Orioles and leans toward the Under.
Game Time
Game time: Wednesday, August 27 at 06:35 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -154
- Baltimore Orioles: +130
Total: 9
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+102)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-123)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 72-60 (Win %: 0.545)
Baltimore Orioles: 60-71 (Win %: 0.458)
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox are missing Triston Casas (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Jorge Mateo (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL; Albert Suarez (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.258 AVG, 20 HR, 82 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.301 AVG, 16 HR, 53 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.283 AVG, 16 HR, 59 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.244 AVG, 15 HR, 49 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox enter with a 72-60 record, but their 32-35 road mark highlights vulnerability away from home. They have won four of their last five, scoring 4.8 runs per game in that stretch, which suggests short-term momentum. Trevor Story has been central to their offensive steadiness, though the team’s overall road profile exposes inconsistency against balanced pitching staffs.
Over the last 10 games, Boston is 6-4 with 4.6 runs per game, showing competence but not dominance. Alex Bregman’s contact ability has added reliability to their order, while Wilyer Abreu’s power presence helps maintain run production. However, the Red Sox’s inability to string together extended road success keeps them a risky betting side in this contest.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 657
- Home Runs: 157
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.72
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 32-35 • Home Record: 41-25
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.6 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles stand at 60-71 and have dropped four of their last five, but their 31-35 home record shows they remain competitive in Baltimore. Gunnar Henderson’s balance of contact and power gives their lineup a stabilizing force, even when results have dipped. The Orioles’ recent scoring of 4.2 runs per game in the last five contests keeps them in striking distance against opponents with shaky road form.
Across the last 10 games, Baltimore is 4-6 with 4.9 runs per game, proving they can still generate offense at a steady rate. Jordan Westburg has provided timely production, while Jackson Holliday adds depth that stretches opposing pitchers. With the Red Sox inconsistent on the road, the Orioles’ ability to grind out runs at home makes them the sharper side despite the recent slump.
- Batting Average: 0.241
- Total Runs Scored: 570
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.405
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 4.69
- WHIP: 1.38
Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 31-35
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- August 26, 2025: BOS 5 @ BAL 0
- August 25, 2025: BOS 4 @ BAL 3
- August 19, 2025: BAL 4 @ BOS 3
- August 18, 2025: BAL 6 @ BOS 3
- May 25, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 1
- May 24, 2025: BAL 2 @ BOS 1
- May 24, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 6
- May 23, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 19
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.0 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Orioles’ home scoring consistency combined with Boston’s losing road record makes Baltimore the sharper side. With Henderson, Westburg, and Holliday anchoring the order, the Orioles are positioned to neutralize Boston’s recent form and deliver a win at Camden Yards.
The Baltimore Orioles at +130 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 4.2 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 4.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.0 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.
Bookmakers
MLB Data pulled from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
