Introduction

More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles

Boston enters this matchup analysis with a 71-59 record, while Baltimore sits at 60-70, and that gap in win percentage highlights where the betting edge lies. The Red Sox have averaged 4.8 runs per game over their last five, showing steadiness, while the Orioles’ recent inconsistency makes them less reliable. With the head-to-head series tied 4–4, Boston’s balance and deeper offensive support suggest they are primed to take control, and the game profile supports a lean toward the Under given both teams’ recent scoring pace.

Game Time

This one goes at Monday, August 25 at 06:35 PM ET inside Camden Yards, aggressive lineups find extra bases.

Odds & Spread Line

• Boston Red Sox: -118
• Baltimore Orioles: +100

Total: 9.5

• Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+136)
• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-164)

Latest Team Records

Boston Red Sox: 71-59 (Win %: 0.546)
Baltimore Orioles: 60-70 (Win %: 0.462)

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox are missing Triston Casas (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Baltimore Orioles are missing Cody Poteet (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Boston Red Sox

• Trevor Story: 0.261 AVG, 20 HR, 82 RBI
• Alex Bregman: 0.305 AVG, 16 HR, 53 RBI
• Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.281 AVG, 15 HR, 58 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.246 AVG, 15 HR, 49 RBI

Team Analysis

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are 3-2 in their last five games and 5-5 across their last ten, showing a balanced rhythm with a steady 4.8 runs per game recently. That level of production, paired with a solid 71-59 season record, points to their ability to generate consistent offense on the road despite a sub-.500 away mark. Trevor Story provides middle-order strength, while Alex Bregman’s reliable contact gives the lineup stability in tight contests.

Wilyer Abreu’s power adds the kind of depth that makes Boston’s order difficult to navigate late in games, especially against a Baltimore pitching staff that has struggled. Their 3.72 ERA shows the Red Sox have the more dependable run prevention profile, which is crucial in a matchup expected to play under the total. With balanced scoring and steadier pitching, Boston enters with the stronger betting outlook.

• Batting Average: 0.253
• Total Runs Scored: 653
• Home Runs: 155
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.425
• OPS: 0.75
• ERA: 3.72
• WHIP: 1.29

Away Record: 30-35 • Home Record: 41-25
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.0 RPG)

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles sit at 2-3 over their last five games and 6-4 across their last ten, but that inconsistency has kept them from climbing above a 0.500 mark at home. Gunnar Henderson remains a key offensive piece, yet the team’s inability to string together wins shows how their production fails to translate into consistent results. Their 60-70 record reflects a lack of closing power in games where they’ve had chances to push ahead.

Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday provide flashes of power, but Baltimore Orioles’ 4.7 ERA and 1.38 WHIP have left them vulnerable, particularly against lineups with disciplined hitters. Their home record of 31-33 reinforces the lack of edge at Camden Yards, making them a less reliable side in tight betting markets. The Orioles’ profile suggests volatility rather than steady output, and that leaves them second best in this matchup.

• Batting Average: 0.241
• Total Runs Scored: 567
• Home Runs: 158
• OBP: 0.307
• SLG: 0.405
• OPS: 0.712
• ERA: 4.7
• WHIP: 1.38

Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 31-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.8 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)

• August 19, 2025: BAL 4 @ BOS 3
• August 18, 2025: BAL 6 @ BOS 3
• May 25, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 1
• May 24, 2025: BAL 2 @ BOS 1
• May 24, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 6
• May 23, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 19
• April 03, 2025: BOS 8 @ BAL 4
• April 02, 2025: BOS 3 @ BAL 0

Over/Under Trends

Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 7.6 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.5.

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 9.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Boston’s steadier scoring profile, combined with a stronger overall record and more consistent pitching, makes them the superior side against an Orioles team struggling to turn production into wins. With proven contributions from Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the lineup depth to control this matchup, and their recent form is more reliable than Baltimore Orioles’ volatile results. This is a clear spot to back Boston to secure the win.

Data supports the Boston Red Sox as the right side.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Baltimore Orioles at 4.8 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 4.8, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — right around the project total. We are expecting an Over 9.5 result.

Bookmakers

Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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