MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Sunday, September 7 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -102 | -108 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (144) | +1.5 (-176) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Record | 78–64 | 71–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona has surged with an 8-2 record across its last 10 games, while Boston has been stuck at a middling 5-5 mark, setting up an interleague MLB prediction that points strongly toward the National League side. The Diamondbacks’ recent scoring pace of 5.4 runs per game in their last five contests gives them a sharper offensive rhythm compared to the Red Sox’s 4.8, and their home consistency adds to the edge. With Boston struggling to find traction on the road, the sharper play leans toward Arizona and a higher-scoring total.
Game Time
The action begins at Sunday, September 7 at 04:10 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -102
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -108
Total: 9
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+144)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-176)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 78-64 (Win %: 0.549)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 71-71 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Anthony DeSclafani (Thumb), listed as 15-Day-IL; Pavin Smith (Quadriceps), listed as 60-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Cristian Mena (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.259 AVG, 23 HR, 88 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.26 AVG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.286 AVG, 17 HR, 91 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.259 AVG, 30 HR, 74 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.286 AVG, 25 HR, 64 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox enter at 78-64 overall but have split their last 10 games at 5-5, showing neither consistent surge nor collapse. Their last five contests sit at 2-3 with 4.8 runs per game, signaling that while the offense has some punch, it has not been translating into enough wins. Trevor Story has been one of the steadier bats, but the team’s 34-37 road record lays bare how difficult it has been for Boston to sustain momentum away from home.
Boston’s lineup does have depth with Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran contributing, yet the inconsistency in recent scoring makes them a volatile betting side. The Red Sox have hovered around league average in production, but their inability to stack wins on the road keeps the ceiling capped. Facing a Diamondbacks group that is surging at home, Boston’s current profile suggests more risk than reward on the moneyline.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 702
- Home Runs: 169
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.78
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 34-37 • Home Record: 44-28
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.0 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have surged to an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games, powered by 5.4 runs per game in their last five outings. Corbin Carroll’s power and Ketel Marte’s steady production have given this lineup a balanced attack that has proven difficult to slow down. Their 38-33 home record reflects a team that consistently delivers in its own ballpark, making them a far stronger betting side than Boston in this spot.
Geraldo Perdomo has been a reliable contributor as well, adding depth to an offense that has been scoring consistently. With 197 home runs on the season, Arizona has the pop to change games quickly, and their recent run of form shows they are capitalizing on that strength. Backed by strong home scoring and recent dominance, Arizona enters this matchup with a clear edge that aligns with their moneyline value.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 707
- Home Runs: 197
- OBP: 0.323
- SLG: 0.437
- OPS: 0.76
- ERA: 4.43
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 34-38 • Home Record: 38-33
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (4.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Arizona Diamondbacks lead 2–0 (Last 2 games)
- September 06, 2025: BOS 1 @ ARI 5
- September 05, 2025: BOS 5 @ ARI 10
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 9.4 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 7.7 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Diamondbacks’ 8-2 surge across their last 10 games, paired with a 38-33 home record and two straight head-to-head wins over Boston, make them the clear moneyline side. With Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte driving an offense producing well above five runs per game recently, Arizona holds both the form and matchup advantage to secure another victory.
Confidence sits with the Arizona Diamondbacks based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 5.4 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 4.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 10.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, Bovada, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 07, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
