Introduction

More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s 50-26 home record is a decisive angle in this MLB prediction, especially against a Boston team that has hovered at .500 on the road. The Blue Jays’ recent dip in scoring only enhances value when paired with Boston’s streak of middling results, creating a sharp contrast between venue dominance and inconsistency. With both sides showing modest offensive outputs over their last five contests, the matchup sets up for Toronto to leverage home-field edge while keeping the total in check.

Game Time

The action begins at Wednesday, September 24 at 07:05 PM ET under the roof at Rogers Centre, pace quickens on turf.

Odds & Spread Line

• Boston Red Sox: -143
• Toronto Blue Jays: +117

Total: 7.5

• Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+123)
• Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-145)

Latest Team Records

Boston Red Sox: 86-71 (Win %: 0.548)
Toronto Blue Jays: 90-67 (Win %: 0.573)

Injury Report

Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Boston Red Sox

• Trevor Story: 0.264 AVG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
• Jarren Duran: 0.26 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
• Alex Bregman: 0.278 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI

Toronto Blue Jays

• George Springer: 0.305 AVG, 30 HR, 80 RBI
• Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.299 AVG, 23 HR, 83 RBI

Team Analysis

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox enter at 86-71 with a neutral 3-2 mark over their last five games, producing 5.4 runs per contest in that stretch. Their overall rhythm remains inconsistent, as their last 10 games show a 5-5 split with just 4.3 runs per outing. Trevor Story has been a key run producer, but the team’s road record of 40-39 spotlights the difficulty of sustaining offense away from home.

Boston has leaned on contributions from Jarren Duran and Alex Bregman, yet the lineup has not consistently translated into dominant stretches. Their scoring profile suggests bursts of production, but not the type of steady output needed to offset Toronto’s home edge. With middling road form and an offense that levels out over longer spans, Boston lacks the betting value in this spot.

• Batting Average: 0.255
• Total Runs Scored: 765
• Home Runs: 182
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.423
• OPS: 0.747
• ERA: 3.76
• WHIP: 1.29

Away Record: 40-39 • Home Record: 46-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.3 RPG)

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays hold a 90-67 record and have been dominant at home with a 50-26 mark, giving them a substantial edge in this matchup. Their last five games show a 1-4 skid with just 2.2 runs per game, but that slump sits against the backdrop of a strong season-long performance at Rogers Centre. George Springer’s power and Bo Bichette’s run production remain central to their ability to rebound quickly.

Over the last 10 games, Toronto has split at 5-5 with 3.6 runs per outing, showing streaky offense but maintaining a steady floor supported by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s consistency. While recent scoring has dipped, the home venue advantage and lineup depth provide the foundation for a bounce-back. Their superior season record and home dominance make them the sharper moneyline side despite the short-term slump.

• Batting Average: 0.267
• Total Runs Scored: 768
• Home Runs: 182
• OBP: 0.334
• SLG: 0.427
• OPS: 0.761
• ERA: 4.23
• WHIP: 1.27

Away Record: 40-41 • Home Record: 50-26
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.6 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)

• September 23, 2025: BOS 4 @ TOR 1
• June 29, 2025: TOR 5 @ BOS 3
• June 28, 2025: TOR 1 @ BOS 15
• June 27, 2025: TOR 9 @ BOS 0
• May 01, 2025: BOS 2 @ TOR 4
• April 30, 2025: BOS 6 @ TOR 7
• April 29, 2025: BOS 10 @ TOR 2
• April 10, 2025: TOR 3 @ BOS 4

Over/Under Trends

Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.

Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Toronto’s 50-26 home record paired with Boston’s mediocre 40-39 road mark creates a clear betting edge in favor of the Blue Jays. Their lineup, anchored by George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has the depth to overcome recent scoring dips and leverage home-field dominance into a winning performance.

Value-side alert: the Toronto Blue Jays at +117 profile as the play.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Toronto Blue Jays have produced 2.2 RPG and the Boston Red Sox 5.4. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Under 7.5.

Bookmakers

Data pulled from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Bovada, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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