MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians (Tuesday, August 26 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | TB | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +107 | -118 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (172) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.8 | 1.0 |
| Record | 63–67 | 64–65 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Tampa Bay Rays · Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay enters this matchup analysis with a balanced 3-2 stretch over its last five contests, averaging 6.8 runs per game, while Cleveland has collapsed offensively with 0-5 form and just 1.0 RPG in that span. The Rays’ ability to maintain scoring rhythm against struggling opposition gives them a decisive edge in this MLB prediction, especially with Cleveland stuck in a prolonged slump at the plate. With recent trends pointing to Tampa Bay Rays’ offensive consistency versus Cleveland Guardians’ lack of production, the value leans heavily toward the road side.
Game Time
Taking place at Tuesday, August 26 at 06:40 PM ET at Progressive Field, conditions can swing totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Tampa Bay Rays: +107
- Cleveland Guardians: -118
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-205)
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+172)
Latest Team Records
Tampa Bay Rays: 63-67 (Win %: 0.485)
Cleveland Guardians: 64-65 (Win %: 0.496)
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays are missing Shane McClanahan (Triceps), listed as 60-Day-IL; Manuel Rodriguez (Forearm), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Cleveland Guardians are missing Lane Thomas (Foot), listed as 10-Day-IL; Emmanuel Clase (Personal), listed as Out.
Key Player Stats
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.255 AVG, 37 HR, 91 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.279 AVG, 21 HR, 73 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.266 AVG, 25 HR, 63 RBI
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.288 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.233 AVG, 21 HR, 55 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.273 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI
Team Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ 3-2 record across the last five games, with 6.8 RPG, highlights an offense that is generating steady scoring pressure. Junior Caminero’s power output has given this lineup a dangerous edge, especially when paired with Yandy Diaz’s ability to consistently put the ball in play. On the road, their 30-34 record shows some inconsistency, but recent form suggests they are trending upward in production away from home.
Brandon Lowe has been another critical contributor, driving in runs at key moments and keeping the offense balanced. The Rays’ 6-4 stretch over their last 10 games further supports their ability to sustain scoring against vulnerable pitching staffs. With Cleveland Guardians’ offense in a prolonged slump, Tampa Bay Rays’ consistent attack positions them as the side with more upside in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 584
- Home Runs: 145
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.401
- OPS: 0.715
- ERA: 4.0
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 30-34 • Home Record: 34-33
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.5 RPG)
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians’ recent 0-5 stretch, averaging just 1.0 RPG, makes clear an offense that has completely broken down. Jose Ramirez remains their most reliable bat, but his production has not been enough to offset the lack of contributions around him. At home, their 31-32 record reflects mediocrity, and current form shows no signs of improvement.
Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan have not provided the lift this team needs, leaving the Guardians with little firepower. Their 1-9 record over the last 10 games, with only 1.8 RPG, highlights a prolonged slump that erases any home-field advantage. With scoring this low, Cleveland is not positioned to keep pace against a team producing nearly seven runs per game in its recent stretch.
- Batting Average: 0.225
- Total Runs Scored: 501
- Home Runs: 132
- OBP: 0.297
- SLG: 0.37
- OPS: 0.667
- ERA: 3.93
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 33-34 • Home Record: 31-32
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (1.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (1.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tampa Bay Rays lead 1–0 (Most recent game)
- August 25, 2025: TB 9 @ CLE 0
Over/Under Trends
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 total runs, with 9 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays’ recent scoring surge of nearly seven runs per game contrasts sharply with Cleveland Guardians’ 1.0 RPG collapse, creating a clear competitive gap. With a head-to-head win already secured on this trip and consistent production from Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Brandon Lowe, the Rays present the sharper side to back with confidence.
Mismatch vs perception: the Tampa Bay Rays at +107 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Cleveland Guardians at 1.0 RPG and the Tampa Bay Rays at 6.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 7.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Current odds sourced from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetUS.
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