MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays (Sunday, September 28 at 03:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | TB | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +162 | -185 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-129) | -1.5 (+109) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| Record | 77–84 | 93–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Tampa Bay Rays · Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays enter this matchup analysis against the Tampa Bay Rays with a commanding 53-27 home record, while Tampa Bay has stumbled to a 36-44 mark on the road. The Rays’ last five games show just 2.8 runs per contest with a 1-4 record, underscoring their offensive struggles. With Toronto holding the stronger overall record and more consistent production at home, this MLB prediction points squarely toward the Blue Jays asserting control in a low-scoring environment.
Game Time
This one goes at Sunday, September 28 at 03:05 PM ET inside Rogers Centre, roof and surface add speed.
Odds & Spread Line
- Tampa Bay Rays: +162
- Toronto Blue Jays: -185
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-129)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+109)
Latest Team Records
Tampa Bay Rays: 77-84 (Win %: 0.478)
Toronto Blue Jays: 93-68 (Win %: 0.578)
Injury Report
The Tampa Bay Rays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Toronto Blue Jays are missing Bo Bichette (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Jose Berrios (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.262 AVG, 45 HR, 110 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.299 AVG, 25 HR, 83 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.258 AVG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- George Springer: 0.305 AVG, 31 HR, 82 RBI
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.295 AVG, 23 HR, 83 RBI
Team Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ 1-4 mark in their last five games with just 2.8 runs per outing highlights a lineup struggling to generate timely offense. Even with power from Junior Caminero, the lack of sustained production has kept them from capitalizing late in games. Their road record also signals vulnerability, suggesting little confidence when traveling.
Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe have contributed steady power, but consistency remains absent in this stretch. With a 4-6 record over their last 10 contests and only 3.7 runs per game, the Rays have failed to build rhythm. Facing a Toronto team that thrives at home, Tampa Bay Rays’ lack of form makes them a questionable moneyline play.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 709
- Home Runs: 181
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.402
- OPS: 0.716
- ERA: 3.87
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 36-44 • Home Record: 41-40
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.7 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s 53-27 home record speaks to their dominance at Rogers Centre and provides a stark contrast to Tampa Bay Rays’ road struggles. Their last five contests produced a 3-2 record with 3.4 runs per game, showing steadier output in comparison. George Springer’s production has been a critical anchor, keeping the lineup balanced despite recent inconsistency.
Over their last 10 games, the Blue Jays sit at 4-6 with 2.8 runs per game, but their ability to control tempo at home offsets that dip. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been reliable in run creation, giving the offense a dependable core. With a superior overall season record and home-field edge, Toronto remains the sharper side in this contest.
- Batting Average: 0.264
- Total Runs Scored: 780
- Home Runs: 186
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.757
- ERA: 4.21
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 40-41 • Home Record: 53-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 27, 2025: TB 1 @ TOR 5
- September 26, 2025: TB 2 @ TOR 4
- September 18, 2025: TOR 0 @ TB 4
- September 17, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 2
- September 16, 2025: TOR 6 @ TB 5
- September 15, 2025: TOR 2 @ TB 1
- May 25, 2025: TOR 0 @ TB 13
- May 24, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 3
Over/Under Trends
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.1 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 7.6 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Blue Jays’ strong 53-27 home record, combined with the Rays’ 36-44 road struggles and recent 1-4 skid, makes Toronto the superior moneyline side. With George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anchoring a steadier lineup and recent head-to-head wins at home, Toronto holds every situational edge necessary to secure this contest.
This sets up cleanly for the Toronto Blue Jays to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Toronto Blue Jays are at 3.4 RPG and the Tampa Bay Rays at 2.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 6.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Under 7.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How does Parlamaz make Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB predictions?
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How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
