MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays (Friday, September 26 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | TB | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +154 | -185 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (118) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Record | 77–82 | 90–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Tampa Bay Rays · Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay enters this matchup after averaging just 4.2 runs across its last five games, while Toronto has produced 3.4 in the same span, giving a clear pace indicator for this MLB prediction. The Rays have struggled to maintain consistency on the road, and their overall record sits below .500. Toronto, on the other hand, has been steady at home with one of the strongest records in the league. Given these recent splits, the Blue Jays hold the superior betting edge in both form and situational profile.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Friday, September 26 at 07:05 PM ET under the roof at Rogers Centre, pace quickens on turf.
Odds & Spread Line
- Tampa Bay Rays: +154
- Toronto Blue Jays: -185
Total: 8
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-140)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+118)
Latest Team Records
Tampa Bay Rays: 77-82 (Win %: 0.484)
Toronto Blue Jays: 90-68 (Win %: 0.57)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.259 AVG, 44 HR, 109 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.301 AVG, 25 HR, 83 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.258 AVG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- George Springer: 0.304 AVG, 30 HR, 80 RBI
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.295 AVG, 23 HR, 83 RBI
Team Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ 2-3 mark in their last five games with 4.2 runs per outing reflects inconsistency, especially when paired with a 4-6 stretch over the last ten. Their away record of 36-42 drives home how often they’ve failed to replicate offensive production outside of Tampa. With Junior Caminero driving power numbers but limited overall lineup support, the team’s attack lacks the depth needed to pressure Toronto consistently.
Yandy Diaz has been steady in contact hitting, but the Rays’ inability to string together sustained rallies has kept run totals modest. Brandon Lowe adds pop, yet the club’s uneven scoring profile has been a recurring issue, particularly against stronger pitching environments. The recent results confirm that Tampa Bay has not been able to build momentum, making them a questionable road side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 702
- Home Runs: 179
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.402
- OPS: 0.715
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 41-40
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.0 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays enter with a 51-27 home record, one of the most dominant marks in the league, underscoring their comfort at Rogers Centre. Their 2-3 record in the last five games with 3.4 runs per contest signals an offense that has been steady but not explosive. George Springer’s balanced power and on-base ability provide a reliable anchor at the top of the order, creating opportunities even when run totals are modest.
Bo Bichette has consistently driven in runs, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains a dependable middle-order threat. Despite a 4-6 record over the last ten games with just 2.7 runs per game, Toronto’s home dominance offsets those short-term results. The situational edge at home combined with their lineup’s proven ability to produce under pressure positions them as the superior side against Tampa Bay.
- Batting Average: 0.265
- Total Runs Scored: 770
- Home Runs: 183
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.757
- ERA: 4.24
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 40-41 • Home Record: 51-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tampa Bay Rays lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- September 18, 2025: TOR 0 @ TB 4
- September 17, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 2
- September 16, 2025: TOR 6 @ TB 5
- September 15, 2025: TOR 2 @ TB 1
- May 25, 2025: TOR 0 @ TB 13
- May 24, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 3
- May 23, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 3
- May 15, 2025: TB 8 @ TOR 3
Over/Under Trends
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 7.8 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Toronto’s 51-27 home record combined with the run-producing reliability of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes them the clear side against a Rays team that has struggled away from home. The Blue Jays’ situational dominance at Rogers Centre outweighs Tampa Bay Rays’ recent inconsistencies, cementing the home team as the sharper pick.
Confidence sits with the Toronto Blue Jays based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Toronto Blue Jays have produced 3.4 RPG and the Tampa Bay Rays 4.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers, BetMGM, Bovada.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 26, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How does Parlamaz make Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
