MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds (Tuesday, September 23 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -156 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (140) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Record | 67–89 | 80–76 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati enters this matchup analysis riding a perfect 5-0 run over their last five games, while Pittsburgh has stumbled to a 2-3 mark in that same span. The Pirates’ season-long struggles on the road have kept their offense inconsistent, and their recent 3-7 stretch across 10 games drives home that volatility. By contrast, the Reds’ balanced scoring and home strength make them the stronger side in this MLB prediction, with recent numbers aligning toward a lower-scoring contest rather than a high-output affair.
Game Time
On tap at Tuesday, September 23 at 06:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +125
- Cincinnati Reds: -156
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-165)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+140)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 67-89 (Win %: 0.429)
Cincinnati Reds: 80-76 (Win %: 0.513)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.244 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.24 AVG, 13 HR, 57 RBI
- Spencer Horwitz: 0.257 AVG, 9 HR, 44 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.263 AVG, 20 HR, 83 RBI
- Spencer Steer: 0.241 AVG, 21 HR, 74 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ 2-3 record over their last 5 games reflects a team that has lacked consistency at the plate, averaging just 4.2 runs in that span. Their overall 3-7 mark across the last 10 games reinforces that this lineup hasn’t produced steady results, particularly on the road where they have struggled all season. Even with Bryan Reynolds providing a reliable bat, the offense has not been able to string together enough timely production to offset those issues.
Andrew McCutchen has shown flashes of power, but the team’s road record of 23-52 highlights why confidence in their attack is limited. Spencer Horwitz has delivered complementary offense at times, yet the Pirates’ inability to sustain rallies undermines his contributions. With subpar scoring rhythm and a poor road profile, they remain a fade candidate in this spot against a surging opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 561
- Home Runs: 112
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.35
- OPS: 0.655
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 23-52 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.6 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have surged with a 5-0 record over their last 5 games, averaging 4.2 runs per contest and showing stability in key moments. Their 6-4 record across the last 10 games further drives home a team playing with confidence, especially at home where they hold a strong 44-34 mark. Elly De La Cruz has been a driving force, consistently producing run support that keeps Cincinnati in control of tight games.
Spencer Steer’s power contributions and Austin Hays’ steady contact hitting have kept the Reds’ lineup balanced and effective. The home form advantage is a decisive factor, with Great American Ball Park rewarding their offensive depth. With momentum, balance, and situational strength, Cincinnati projects as the far more reliable side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 697
- Home Runs: 161
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 44-34
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- August 10, 2025: CIN 14 @ PIT 8
- August 09, 2025: CIN 2 @ PIT 1
- August 08, 2025: CIN 2 @ PIT 3
- August 07, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 7
- May 21, 2025: CIN 1 @ PIT 3
- May 20, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 1
- May 19, 2025: CIN 7 @ PIT 1
- April 13, 2025: PIT 0 @ CIN 4
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.0 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.0 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Cincinnati Reds’ 5-0 surge and 44-34 home record provide a decisive edge over a Pirates team that has faltered both on the road and in recent scoring rhythm. With Elly De La Cruz leading a balanced lineup and the Reds’ situational dominance at Great American Ball Park, they are the clear moneyline side to back with confidence.
The Cincinnati Reds are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Cincinnati Reds are at 4.2 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 4.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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