MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox (Sunday, August 31 at 01:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +155 | -185 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (120) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| Record | 60–76 | 75–61 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Boston Red Sox
Pittsburgh Pirates’ surge has been undeniable, with an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games while delivering 5.1 runs per outing, setting the tone for an interleague MLB prediction that favors momentum over record. Boston has been steady at home but is averaging just 3.2 runs across its last five, underscoring an offense that has cooled. With the Pirates’ attack showing rhythm and the Red Sox trending toward lower-scoring contests, the edge sits firmly with the National League side in this matchup analysis.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Sunday, August 31 at 01:35 PM ET inside historic Fenway Park, where the Monster turns liners into doubles.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +155
- Boston Red Sox: -185
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-140)
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+120)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 60-76 (Win %: 0.441)
Boston Red Sox: 75-61 (Win %: 0.551)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.244 AVG, 14 HR, 66 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.245 AVG, 12 HR, 50 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.265 AVG, 8 HR, 43 RBI
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.255 AVG, 22 HR, 84 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.291 AVG, 16 HR, 53 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have surged to a 4-1 record over their last five games, producing 5.0 runs per game, which signals a lineup finding rhythm at the perfect time. Bryan Reynolds has been central to their offensive stability, while Andrew McCutchen has provided timely production that elevates their scoring ceiling. On the road, despite a season-long struggle, their recent surge shows renewed confidence and a lineup capable of sustaining pressure in hostile environments.
Tommy Pham’s consistency adds another layer to the offense, giving the Pirates reliable depth in run creation. Their pitching staff has kept games under control, allowing the offense to win with efficiency rather than volume. With momentum firmly on their side and a recent scoring profile above five runs per contest, this team has the form and balance to extend its winning stretch in Boston.
- Batting Average: 0.234
- Total Runs Scored: 488
- Home Runs: 98
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.352
- OPS: 0.657
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 22-46 • Home Record: 39-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.1 RPG)
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are 3-2 over their last five, but their scoring has dipped to just 3.2 runs per game, indicating an offense that is not firing at full capacity. Trevor Story has been the most consistent run producer, but the supporting cast has not sustained rallies at the same pace. At home, they have been reliable overall, yet their recent offensive lull suggests vulnerability against a surging opponent.
Wilyer Abreu and Alex Bregman have provided occasional sparks, but the lack of consistent production points to why Boston’s recent contests have leaned toward lower totals. Their pitching staff remains solid, but the reduced scoring output limits their margin for error in tight games. With the Pirates entering on a hot streak, Boston’s current rhythm looks insufficient to overpower a confident visiting side.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 670
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.323
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.66
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 34-35 • Home Record: 41-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 2–0 (Last 2 games)
- August 30, 2025: PIT 10 @ BOS 3
- August 29, 2025: PIT 4 @ BOS 2
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Pirates’ 8-2 surge across their last 10 games, combined with back-to-back head-to-head wins at Fenway, makes them the sharper side. With Reynolds, McCutchen, and Pham anchoring a lineup producing over five runs per contest and Boston’s bats cooling, this matchup tilts decisively toward the visitors.
The Pittsburgh Pirates at +155 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Boston Red Sox have produced 3.2 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
