MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles (Tuesday, September 9 at 06:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +133 | -159 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-161) | -1.5 (138) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.6 | 4.2 |
| Record | 64–80 | 66–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Baltimore Orioles
Pittsburgh enters this interleague matchup against Baltimore with a 2-3 record over the last five games, averaging just 2.6 runs per contest, a clear indicator of their grind-it-out style. This MLB prediction leans on the Pirates’ ability to control tempo through strong pitching while Baltimore has shown scoring variance despite a 4-1 stretch in its last five. The contrast in recent run production points toward value on Pittsburgh Pirates’ side and a lower-scoring outcome under today’s total.
Game Time
Scheduled for Tuesday, September 9 at 06:35 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +133
- Baltimore Orioles: -159
Total: 8
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-161)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+138)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 64-80 (Win %: 0.444)
Baltimore Orioles: 66-77 (Win %: 0.462)
Injury Report
The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Adley Rutschman (Oblique), listed as 10-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Jordan Westburg (Ankle), listed as 10-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.248 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.244 AVG, 13 HR, 52 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.261 AVG, 8 HR, 49 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.274 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.248 AVG, 17 HR, 53 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ 2-3 mark across their last five games illustrates inconsistency, yet their pitching staff continues to keep them competitive with a 3.91 ERA that limits damage. While Bryan Reynolds anchors the lineup, Andrew McCutchen has provided timely run production when needed, ensuring the offense never fully stalls. Their 22-47 road record is concerning, but the ability to tighten games with pitching gives them a live underdog profile in this matchup.
Tommy Pham offers another steady bat that complements the top of the order, and his presence has been critical in games where offense is scarce. Despite averaging just 2.6 runs per game in their last five, the Pirates have balanced that with defensive stability, keeping contests within reach. The combination of selective offense and reliable pitching aligns with a strategy that can frustrate Baltimore Orioles’ rhythm in a low-scoring game.
- Batting Average: 0.233
- Total Runs Scored: 522
- Home Runs: 102
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.351
- OPS: 0.657
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 22-47 • Home Record: 42-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.9 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles’ 4-1 stretch in the last five games has been driven by consistent scoring at 4.2 runs per contest, with Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday providing balance in the order. However, their 33-38 home record reveals vulnerability at Camden Yards, a weakness that undercuts their recent uptick. The Orioles’ pitching staff carries a 4.65 ERA, leaving room for opponents to capitalize in close games.
Even with Henderson’s steady production, the loss of Jordan Westburg to injury disrupts depth and forces more pressure on Holliday to sustain offense. Their 6-4 record across the last 10 games looks solid, but the inconsistency of their pitching has made margin of victory slim. At home, where they have struggled to create separation, this matchup leans toward Pittsburgh exploiting those gaps in a controlled, low-scoring contest.
- Batting Average: 0.241
- Total Runs Scored: 620
- Home Runs: 172
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 4.65
- WHIP: 1.38
Away Record: 33-39 • Home Record: 33-38
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Pirates’ ability to suppress scoring with a strong ERA while Baltimore has struggled to hold consistency at Camden Yards makes them the sharper moneyline angle. With Reynolds and McCutchen providing timely offense against a vulnerable pitching staff, Pittsburgh has the profile to dictate pace and secure an interleague road win.
The Pittsburgh Pirates at +133 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 4.2 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 2.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 6.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, Fanatics, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS, DraftKings, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 09, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
