MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (Thursday, August 28 at 02:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +108 | -118 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-195) | -1.5 (161) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| Record | 58–75 | 65–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh has surged with a 4-1 record over its last five games, but this betting preview shows why St. Louis holds the sharper edge. The Cardinals’ home form and situational splits align with their ability to neutralize a Pirates lineup that has been inconsistent away from home. With both clubs combining for 8.8 RPG across recent contests, the data points toward a tight contest where St. Louis’ balance and run prevention tilt the MLB prediction firmly in their favor.
Game Time
Game time: Thursday, August 28 at 02:15 PM ET inside Busch Stadium, deep alleys keep runs in check.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +108
- St. Louis Cardinals: -118
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-195)
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+161)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 58-75 (Win %: 0.436)
St. Louis Cardinals: 65-68 (Win %: 0.489)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.247 AVG, 14 HR, 66 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.241 AVG, 12 HR, 49 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.265 AVG, 7 HR, 38 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.291 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 73 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.281 AVG, 10 HR, 47 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have posted a 4-1 mark across their last five games, averaging 5.0 RPG during that span, but their season-long road struggles remain glaring. A 20-45 away record emphasizes how often this team fails to replicate its home rhythm when traveling. Bryan Reynolds has provided steady production, but the supporting lineup has not consistently capitalized in hostile environments.
Over their last 10 contests, Pittsburgh sits at 7-3 with 4.7 RPG, suggesting recent competence but not a complete turnaround given their season-long inefficiency. Andrew McCutchen’s veteran presence helps stabilize at-bats, yet the Pirates’ offensive ceiling remains capped by long stretches of inconsistency. Tommy Pham adds another dimension, but on the road this roster has lacked the situational hitting required to sustain scoring pressure against quality opponents.
- Batting Average: 0.235
- Total Runs Scored: 481
- Home Runs: 97
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.353
- OPS: 0.659
- ERA: 3.95
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 20-45 • Home Record: 39-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.7 RPG)
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter on a 1-4 stretch across their last five, averaging 3.8 RPG, but their 36-32 home record proves they handle this venue far more effectively than Pittsburgh has on the road. Alec Burleson has been reliable in providing contact and run production that stabilizes the lineup. That home-field advantage combined with their ability to generate offense from multiple sources positions them as the better side despite the recent skid.
Across the last 10 games, St. Louis sits at 4-6 with 4.7 RPG, reflecting uneven results but not a lack of scoring potential. Willson Contreras has been a consistent power source, while Ivan Herrera adds depth that prevents opposing pitchers from navigating the order easily. With the Pirates’ road inefficiency and the Cardinals’ stronger splits at Busch Stadium, the matchup tilts toward St. Louis asserting control here.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 583
- Home Runs: 126
- OBP: 0.317
- SLG: 0.384
- OPS: 0.701
- ERA: 4.33
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 36-32
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- August 27, 2025: PIT 2 @ STL 1
- August 26, 2025: PIT 8 @ STL 3
- August 25, 2025: PIT 6 @ STL 7
- July 02, 2025: STL 0 @ PIT 5
- July 01, 2025: STL 0 @ PIT 1
- June 30, 2025: STL 0 @ PIT 7
- May 07, 2025: PIT 0 @ STL 5
- May 06, 2025: PIT 1 @ STL 2
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cardinals’ 36-32 home record stands in sharp contrast to Pittsburgh Pirates’ 20-45 road mark, reinforcing why St. Louis is positioned to respond effectively here. With Willson Contreras anchoring the order and Ivan Herrera providing stability deeper in the lineup, the Cardinals’ balanced offense and favorable venue profile make them the superior moneyline side.
The St. Louis Cardinals are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the St. Louis Cardinals have produced 3.8 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How does Parlamaz make Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
