MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (Monday, August 25 at 07:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (156) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Record | 56–74 | 64–66 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 11.6 combined runs, a glaring signal for this MLB prediction as they prepare to host Pittsburgh. The Pirates enter with a 4-1 stretch over their last 5, but their 18-44 road record exposes major vulnerability away from home. Meanwhile, St. Louis’ lineup has consistently delivered run support, and their home edge makes them the more reliable side. With both teams scoring above 4 runs per game recently, this contest sets up for the Cardinals to control the moneyline while pushing the total Over.
Game Time
Taking place at Monday, August 25 at 07:45 PM ET inside Busch Stadium, deep alleys keep runs in check.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +110
- St. Louis Cardinals: -130
Total: 8
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+156)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 56-74 (Win %: 0.431)
St. Louis Cardinals: 64-66 (Win %: 0.492)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.246 AVG, 13 HR, 63 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.241 AVG, 12 HR, 47 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.267 AVG, 7 HR, 38 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
- Willson Contreras: 0.263 AVG, 19 HR, 70 RBI
- Alec Burleson: 0.285 AVG, 15 HR, 59 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.283 AVG, 10 HR, 47 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has shown short-term momentum with a 4-1 record across its last 5 games, producing 4.6 runs per contest in that span. However, the Pirates’ season-long profile is defined by inconsistency, particularly on the road where they sit at 18-44. Bryan Reynolds has been a steady run producer, but the lack of depth behind him has limited sustained scoring against stronger pitching staffs.
Even with Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham contributing, Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense has not traveled well. Their 6-4 mark in the last 10 games reflects improvement, but the away splits remain glaring. Facing a Cardinals lineup that consistently pressures opposing staffs at home, the Pirates’ offensive rhythm will be tested heavily, and their road inefficiency makes them a weak moneyline option.
- Batting Average: 0.234
- Total Runs Scored: 463
- Home Runs: 93
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.351
- OPS: 0.656
- ERA: 3.96
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 18-44 • Home Record: 39-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.0 RPG)
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this matchup with a balanced offensive profile, averaging 5.2 runs over their last 10 games. Their 35-30 home record drives home reliability in St. Louis, where Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson have provided steady middle-of-the-order production. Although their last 5 games show a 2-3 record, the offense has been consistent at 4.8 runs per contest, keeping them competitive even in losses.
Ivan Herrera adds another layer of depth, giving this group multiple threats capable of driving in runs. Despite the losing record across their last 10, the Cardinals’ scoring pace remains ahead of Pittsburgh Pirates’ road output, and their home stability is a critical edge. With the Pirates struggling outside of Pittsburgh, St. Louis has the stronger situational profile to control this contest and cover the moneyline expectation.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 571
- Home Runs: 124
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.705
- ERA: 4.29
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 35-30
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (5.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- July 02, 2025: STL 0 @ PIT 5
- July 01, 2025: STL 0 @ PIT 1
- June 30, 2025: STL 0 @ PIT 7
- May 07, 2025: PIT 0 @ STL 5
- May 06, 2025: PIT 1 @ STL 2
- May 05, 2025: PIT 3 @ STL 6
- April 09, 2025: STL 1 @ PIT 2
- April 08, 2025: STL 5 @ PIT 3
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.2 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 11.6 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
St. Louis holds the stronger betting angle with a solid 35-30 home record and lineup depth that has consistently produced above 4 runs per game in recent weeks. Contreras, Burleson, and Herrera give the Cardinals multiple reliable run producers, while Pittsburgh Pirates’ 18-44 road mark highlights their inability to sustain form away from PNC Park. With the Cardinals maintaining offensive consistency even in recent losses, they are positioned to control this matchup outright.
The St. Louis Cardinals are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the St. Louis Cardinals are at 4.8 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 4.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, FanDuel, BetUS, BetRivers, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics.
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