MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves (Sunday, September 28 at 03:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +180 | -233 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-122) | -1.5 (+100) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Record | 71–90 | 75–86 |
| Lines: BetRivers, Bovada, Caesars, DraftKings +3 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves’ offense has averaged 9.2 combined runs per game across its last 10, a clear signal for bettors targeting totals in this MLB prediction. Pittsburgh has shown recent spark with a 4-1 run, but their overall away struggles remain a liability in high-pressure matchups. Atlanta Braves’ deeper lineup and consistent run production at home create the sharper angle, especially when considering the Pirates’ season-long issues away from their own park.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Sunday, September 28 at 03:15 PM ET inside Truist Park, hot bats can move the number.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +180
- Atlanta Braves: -233
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-122)
- Run Line — Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+100)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-90 (Win %: 0.441)
Atlanta Braves: 75-86 (Win %: 0.466)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.244 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
- Spencer Horwitz: 0.27 AVG, 11 HR, 51 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.238 AVG, 13 HR, 57 RBI
Atlanta Braves
- Matt Olson: 0.272 AVG, 29 HR, 94 RBI
- Michael Harris II: 0.248 AVG, 20 HR, 86 RBI
- Ronald Acuna Jr.: 0.29 AVG, 20 HR, 40 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates enter with a 71-90 record and a difficult 27-53 mark on the road, which highlights their vulnerability away from home. Despite a recent 4-1 stretch that included 4.2 runs per game, the broader season numbers show inconsistency in offensive rhythm. Bryan Reynolds has provided steady production, but the team has lacked the consistent depth to sustain scoring against higher-tier opponents.
Spencer Horwitz has been a reliable contact bat, but the Pirates’ overall power output hasn’t matched up against stronger rotations. Andrew McCutchen brings veteran presence, yet the team’s away inefficiency has repeatedly stalled momentum. Even with recent scoring upticks, this profile still points to challenges in keeping pace with Atlanta Braves’ deeper run production at Truist Park.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 579
- Home Runs: 116
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.351
- OPS: 0.655
- ERA: 3.78
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 27-53 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.2 RPG)
Atlanta Braves
The Braves’ 75-86 record comes with a more balanced 38-42 home split, giving them the edge in this matchup. Despite a 2-3 mark in the last 5 games, they’ve scored 4.2 runs per game in that span and 5.7 across the last 10, showing that offensive consistency remains intact. Matt Olson’s power anchors this group, supplying the type of production that consistently pressures opposing pitching staffs.
Michael Harris II has added balance in run creation, while Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to spark scoring opportunities with his all-around offensive presence. Atlanta Braves’ 189 home runs on the season further demonstrate their ability to tilt totals upward, particularly at home. With superior lineup depth and stronger recent offensive metrics, the Braves are positioned to control this contest and extend their scoring edge.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 719
- Home Runs: 189
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.4
- OPS: 0.721
- ERA: 4.39
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-44 • Home Record: 38-42
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- September 27, 2025: PIT 3 @ ATL 1
- September 26, 2025: PIT 9 @ ATL 3
- May 11, 2025: ATL 3 @ PIT 4
- May 10, 2025: ATL 3 @ PIT 2
- May 09, 2025: ATL 2 @ PIT 3
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 6.9 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Atlanta Braves’ offensive profile is stronger and more reliable at home, where their lineup depth consistently produces multi-run innings. With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson driving production and recent 10-game scoring numbers pointing upward, the Braves are the sharper side to back for a straight win in this matchup.
Confidence sits with the Atlanta Braves based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Atlanta Braves are at 4.2 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 4.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, DraftKings, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
