MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves (Friday, September 26 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +134 | -161 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (130) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Record | 69–90 | 75–84 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Atlanta Braves
Atlanta enters this matchup analysis with a surge of confidence, riding a 9-1 record in their last 10 games and averaging 7.0 runs per contest. Pittsburgh has shown flashes with a 4-1 mark in their last five, but their overall 3.3 RPG across the last 10 highlights inconsistency. With the Braves’ lineup consistently producing higher totals, this MLB prediction leans toward Atlanta controlling the pace and pushing this contest beyond the posted number.
Game Time
On tap at Friday, September 26 at 07:15 PM ET inside Truist Park, hot bats can move the number.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +134
- Atlanta Braves: -161
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-155)
- Run Line — Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+130)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 69-90 (Win %: 0.434)
Atlanta Braves: 75-84 (Win %: 0.472)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.243 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.24 AVG, 13 HR, 57 RBI
- Spencer Horwitz: 0.262 AVG, 9 HR, 47 RBI
Atlanta Braves
- Matt Olson: 0.272 AVG, 28 HR, 93 RBI
- Michael Harris II: 0.246 AVG, 19 HR, 85 RBI
- Ronald Acuna Jr.: 0.284 AVG, 20 HR, 40 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 69-90 season record drives home their struggles, but the 4-1 mark across their last five games shows a short-term uptick. Still, the 3.3 RPG across the last 10 highlights that scoring has been inconsistent, with too many games where the offense stalls. Bryan Reynolds has been a steady contributor, yet the team’s road record of 25-53 reflects how difficult it has been to sustain momentum away from home.
Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz bring occasional sparks, but the Pirates’ inability to generate steady production has left them vulnerable against higher-scoring opponents. Their pitching staff has been solid enough to keep games close, but run support often lags behind. Against a Braves lineup firing on all cylinders, Pittsburgh Pirates’ inconsistent offense leaves them exposed despite recent wins.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 569
- Home Runs: 113
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.35
- OPS: 0.655
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 25-53 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.3 RPG)
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves’ 75-84 record masks the surge they’ve built, with a 9-1 stretch in their last 10 games and an impressive 7.0 RPG pace. Matt Olson’s power numbers have driven the middle of the order, while Michael Harris II has added run production depth. Their home record of 38-40 demonstrates they are comfortable producing in this venue, especially with Ronald Acuna Jr. adding consistent offensive spark.
Recent form is undeniable, with 5.8 RPG across the last five and multiple hitters clicking at the same time. Atlanta Braves’ lineup balance has overwhelmed opponents, and their ability to string together big innings makes them a dangerous Over team. Against a Pirates squad with shaky road performance, the Braves’ offensive rhythm positions them as the clear betting side.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 716
- Home Runs: 187
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.4
- OPS: 0.721
- ERA: 4.36
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 37-44 • Home Record: 38-40
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (7.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- May 11, 2025: ATL 3 @ PIT 4
- May 10, 2025: ATL 3 @ PIT 2
- May 09, 2025: ATL 2 @ PIT 3
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 6.4 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Atlanta Braves’ 9-1 surge in their last 10 games, paired with a 5.8 RPG pace across the last five, makes them the clear betting side against a Pirates team that struggles on the road. With Matt Olson anchoring the lineup and Ronald Acuna Jr. driving consistent production, the Braves’ offensive depth is too strong for Pittsburgh Pirates’ uneven scoring to match. Expect Atlanta to impose control from the plate and extend their winning rhythm at home.
Markets point to the Atlanta Braves as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Atlanta Braves at 5.8 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 4.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, BetRivers, Fanatics, BetMGM, Bovada.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
