Introduction

Philadelphia Phillies’ 4-1 surge over their last five games signals a team peaking at the right moment, and that momentum is central to this MLB prediction. With the Phillies’ road offense producing steadily and Cincinnati averaging 5.0 runs per game in their last five, the conditions point to sustained scoring pressure on both sides. The Reds’ inconsistency over their last ten contrasts sharply with Philadelphia Phillies’ recent rhythm, giving the visitors a clear performance edge in both form and matchup dynamics.

Game Time

This one goes at Wednesday, August 13 at 05:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.

Odds & Spread Line

• Philadelphia Phillies: -156
• Cincinnati Reds: +118

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+130)
• Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-150)

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 69-49 (Win %: 0.585)
Cincinnati Reds: 62-58 (Win %: 0.517)

Injury Report

Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.252 AVG, 42 HR, 97 RBI
• Trea Turner: 0.282 AVG, 12 HR, 52 RBI
• Nick Castellanos: 0.259 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI

Cincinnati Reds

• Elly De La Cruz: 0.275 AVG, 19 HR, 74 RBI
• Miguel Andujar: 0.304 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI
• Spencer Steer: 0.239 AVG, 14 HR, 54 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies’ 4-1 record in their last five games underscores a confident, in-form club translating efficient offense into wins. On the road, their 32-29 mark shows they can handle away environments, and their recent run output of 4.2 RPG in that stretch reflects steady production. Kyle Schwarber’s power threat forces opposing pitchers into high-stress counts, creating RBI chances for hitters like Trea Turner to exploit gaps in the Reds’ defense.

Over the last ten games, Philadelphia Phillies’ 7-3 record with 4.7 RPG signals a balanced approach that blends timely hitting with run prevention. Nick Castellanos’ ability to extend innings with quality contact adds depth to a lineup already producing at a consistent clip. Against a Cincinnati staff that has been average in run suppression, the Phillies’ blend of power and situational hitting sets them up to control the scoring pace.

• Batting Average: 0.255
• Total Runs Scored: 555
• Home Runs: 142
• OPS: 0.744
• ERA: 3.68
• WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 32-29 • Home Record: 37-21
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.7 RPG)

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Cincinnati Reds

The Reds’ 3-2 mark in their last five games features a robust 5.0 RPG, but their 5-5 split over the last ten reflects inconsistency. At home, a 34-27 record shows competence, yet their recent scoring volatility makes them vulnerable to teams with disciplined pitching and capable road offenses. Elly De La Cruz’s extra-base ability is a clear asset, though reliance on top-end performers leaves their lineup exposed if the middle order doesn’t contribute.

Miguel Andujar’s contact skills give Cincinnati a table-setter, but the group’s 3.6 RPG over the last ten highlights stretches where run creation stalls. Spencer Steer offers occasional pop, yet the lack of sustained pressure across the lineup can limit their ability to match an opponent with multiple on-base threats. Against a Phillies team executing well in all phases, the Reds will need more than sporadic bursts to keep pace.

• Batting Average: 0.246
• Total Runs Scored: 540
• Home Runs: 120
• OPS: 0.708
• ERA: 3.88
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 29-31 • Home Record: 34-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.6 RPG)

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Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• August 12, 2025: PHI 1 @ CIN 6
• August 11, 2025: PHI 4 @ CIN 1
• July 06, 2025: CIN 1 @ PHI 3
• July 05, 2025: CIN 1 @ PHI 5
• July 04, 2025: CIN 9 @ PHI 6

Over/Under Trends

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 1 game clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies’ superior recent form, consistent road scoring, and ability to generate offense from multiple lineup spots make them the stronger side in this matchup. Their success against Cincinnati in recent meetings, combined with disciplined hitting from core bats, positions them to dictate game flow. Expect them to sustain pressure and convert key opportunities into a decisive win.

Form and matchup edges favor the Philadelphia Phillies — back them.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Cincinnati Reds have produced 5.0 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies 4.2. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward a Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

Lines retrieved from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetUS, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.

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