Introduction

Cincinnati Reds’ balanced attack and the Phillies’ recent 4-1 stretch set the stage for an intriguing MLB prediction, but recent scoring patterns point sharply toward value on the home side. Philadelphia Phillies’ 32-28 road mark has been steady, yet Cincinnati Reds’ situational edge at home combined with both teams’ sub-8.5 combined RPG over the last 10 games signals a lower-scoring contest. With the Reds showing enough offensive depth to challenge a strong Phillies rotation, this matchup tilts toward the hosts controlling pace and keeping the scoreboard in check.

Game Time

Opening pitch at Tuesday, August 12 at 06:40 PM ET inside Great American Ball Park, power plays up.

Odds & Spread Line

• Philadelphia Phillies: -161
• Cincinnati Reds: +133

Total: 9

• Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+102)
• Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-122)

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 68-49 (Win %: 0.581)
Cincinnati Reds: 62-57 (Win %: 0.521)

Injury Report

Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.252 AVG, 41 HR, 95 RBI
• Nick Castellanos: 0.261 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI
• Trea Turner: 0.282 AVG, 12 HR, 51 RBI

Cincinnati Reds

• Elly De La Cruz: 0.277 AVG, 19 HR, 74 RBI
• Miguel Andujar: 0.303 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI
• Spencer Steer: 0.241 AVG, 14 HR, 54 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies’ 4-1 record over their last 5 games reflects a team executing well, averaging 4.2 runs per game in that span. On the road, their 32-28 mark shows they can win away from home, but the margins have often been slim against quality pitching. Kyle Schwarber’s power production has kept their offense dangerous, yet Cincinnati Reds’ home pitching profile presents a different challenge in run creation.

Philadelphia Phillies’ recent 8-2 run across 10 games demonstrates consistency, but Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner will need to maintain contact efficiency to offset the Reds’ ability to limit extra-base hits. The Phillies’ strong ERA underscores their pitching depth, but in a low-scoring environment, every stranded runner matters more. Against a Cincinnati side that thrives in tight contests at home, the Phillies face a narrower path to control.

• Batting Average: 0.255
• Total Runs Scored: 555
• Home Runs: 142
• OPS: 0.744
• ERA: 3.68
• WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 32-28 • Home Record: 37-21
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.1 RPG)

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Cincinnati Reds

The Reds’ 2-3 record in their last 5 games with 3.8 RPG shows a team in competitive but lower-scoring contests. At home, their 33-27 record signals a solid advantage, with Elly De La Cruz anchoring the lineup through consistent run production. Their ability to convert limited scoring chances into wins is critical against a Phillies team that can pressure pitchers quickly.

Over the last 10 games, Cincinnati has played to a 5-5 mark with just 3.3 RPG, underscoring their tendency toward unders. Miguel Andujar’s high average and Spencer Steer’s timely power give them enough offensive spark, but their real strength is keeping opponents contained. This home-field control aligns with a game script that favors them in a close, low-total outcome.

• Batting Average: 0.246
• Total Runs Scored: 540
• Home Runs: 120
• OPS: 0.708
• ERA: 3.88
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 29-31 • Home Record: 33-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.3 RPG)

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Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)

• August 11, 2025: PHI 4 @ CIN 1
• July 06, 2025: CIN 1 @ PHI 3
• July 05, 2025: CIN 1 @ PHI 5
• July 04, 2025: CIN 9 @ PHI 6

Over/Under Trends

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 7.6 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.0.

Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 7.1 combined runs, with 1 game clearing the same number of 9.0.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Cincinnati Reds’ home record, coupled with their ability to manage tight, low-scoring games, makes them the sharper side here. Their lineup led by Elly De La Cruz and supported by Miguel Andujar’s contact skills can generate enough offense to complement a pitching staff adept at suppressing power. Against a Phillies team that has thrived recently but faces a hostile venue and a disciplined opponent, the Reds are positioned to dictate tempo and secure the win.

Value-side alert: the Cincinnati Reds at +133 profile as the play.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Cincinnati Reds are at 3.8 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 4.2 — a useful baseline against the total.

These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That leans to a Under 9.0.

Bookmakers

Available at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, BetRivers.

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