MLB Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (Monday, August 25 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PHI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (145) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| Record | 75–54 | 69–60 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · New York Mets
Philadelphia enters this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 surge over its last five games, producing 6.0 runs per outing to reaffirm its offensive rhythm. New York has been less convincing at 2-3 in its last five despite averaging 6.2 runs, leaving questions about consistency against higher-caliber opposition. With both teams consistently clearing the 8-run threshold in recent weeks, this MLB prediction leans toward Philadelphia Phillies’ sharper form and a game total that trends above the number.
Game Time
This one goes at Monday, August 25 at 07:10 PM ET inside Citi Field, stronger arms often set the tone.
Odds & Spread Line
- Philadelphia Phillies: -120
- New York Mets: +100
Total: 8
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+145)
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-170)
Latest Team Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 75-54 (Win %: 0.581)
New York Mets: 69-60 (Win %: 0.535)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.249 AVG, 45 HR, 109 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.301 AVG, 14 HR, 61 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 21 HR, 60 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.262 AVG, 29 HR, 103 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.249 AVG, 32 HR, 76 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.265 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 75-54 record reflects a team that has sustained winning habits deep into the season, and the last 5 games at 4-1 (6.0 RPG) show their offense is firing with balance. Kyle Schwarber’s power presence keeps pitchers honest, while Trea Turner’s consistency at the plate extends innings and creates scoring chances. That combination has been particularly effective away from home, where Philadelphia has maintained a positive run differential despite a competitive road slate.
In the last 10 games, Philadelphia Phillies’ 7-3 mark with 6.1 RPG demonstrates repeatable production rather than streaky variance. Bryce Harper’s timely hitting has elevated their ability to capitalize on base runners, giving the lineup multiple weapons to pressure opposing staffs. With a 34-32 road record, this group has shown it can travel well, and the current offensive rhythm gives them the sharper edge entering this contest.
- Batting Average: 0.258
- Total Runs Scored: 614
- Home Runs: 160
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.751
- ERA: 3.76
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 34-32 • Home Record: 42-22
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.1 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets sit at 69-60, but their 2-3 stretch across the last 5 games (6.2 RPG) highlights inconsistency. Pete Alonso’s run production remains a weapon, yet the supporting cast has not delivered steady output in high-leverage spots. At home, they’ve been effective with a 41-24 record, but recent lapses suggest the Phillies’ momentum poses a more reliable betting angle.
Over the last 10 games, New York Mets’ 5-5 split with 6.1 RPG shows a team stuck in neutral. Juan Soto’s power and Francisco Lindor’s all-around contributions keep them competitive, but defensive lapses and uneven pitching have limited their ceiling. Despite a strong overall home mark, their current form lacks the sharpness Philadelphia is bringing into this contest.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 590
- Home Runs: 174
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 28-37 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (6.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 4–2 (Last 6 games)
- June 22, 2025: NYM 1 @ PHI 7
- June 21, 2025: NYM 11 @ PHI 4
- June 20, 2025: NYM 2 @ PHI 10
- April 23, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 4
- April 22, 2025: PHI 1 @ NYM 5
- April 21, 2025: PHI 4 @ NYM 5
Over/Under Trends
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.8 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ 7-3 run across the last 10 games, combined with a 4-1 record in its most recent stretch, reveals a team hitting its stride at the right time. The Mets’ 2-3 skid despite solid run production highlights their vulnerability, while Philadelphia Phillies’ road form and the impact of hitters like Schwarber and Turner tilt the matchup in their favor. With sharper recent consistency and stronger offensive rhythm, the Phillies are the sharper moneyline side.
The Philadelphia Phillies are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the New York Mets at 6.2 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 6.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 12.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, FanDuel, BetRivers, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 25, 2025)?
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