Introduction

More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Los Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia has surged with an 8-2 mark over its last 10 games, averaging 6.5 runs per contest, while Los Angeles has delivered a steady 6.2 runs per game across the same span. This matchup analysis highlights two lineups that are consistently producing above the league’s scoring baseline, with both sides clearing totals at a high rate. With the Dodgers’ strong home rhythm and the Phillies’ elevated road scoring, bettors should expect sustained offense and a decisive edge for Los Angeles in this MLB prediction.

Game Time

First pitch comes at Wednesday, September 17 at 10:10 PM ET inside Dodger Stadium, totals often track with starting pitching.

Odds & Spread Line

• Philadelphia Phillies: +120
• Los Angeles Dodgers: -145

Total: 8

• Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-170)
• Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+145)

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 90-61 (Win %: 0.596)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 84-66 (Win %: 0.56)

Injury Report

The Philadelphia Phillies are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Brock Stewart (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Will Smith (Hand), listed as 10-Day-IL; Roki Sasaki (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.244 AVG, 53 HR, 128 RBI
• Bryce Harper: 0.264 AVG, 27 HR, 73 RBI
• Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Shohei Ohtani: 0.281 AVG, 49 HR, 93 RBI
• Freddie Freeman: 0.295 AVG, 20 HR, 82 RBI
• Andy Pages: 0.276 AVG, 25 HR, 81 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have built strong form, going 4-1 in their last 5 games while averaging 6.8 runs per contest. That surge has been powered by consistent contributions across the lineup, with Kyle Schwarber’s power presence complemented by Bryce Harper’s balanced production. Their 40-37 road record, however, shows that while competitive, they are not as dominant away from home as they are in Philadelphia.

Over the last 10 games, the Phillies have gone 8-2 with 6.5 runs per game, showcasing sustained offensive rhythm. Trea Turner has been a stabilizer in the order, giving them consistent contact hitting to pair with Schwarber’s home run strength. Yet, despite this surge, their away splits suggest a tougher assignment against a Dodgers team that plays its best baseball at home.

• Batting Average: 0.261
• Total Runs Scored: 734
• Home Runs: 194
• OBP: 0.331
• SLG: 0.432
• OPS: 0.763
• ERA: 3.83
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 40-37 • Home Record: 51-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.5 RPG)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have been steady, posting 6.2 runs per game across their last 10 contests, and their 48-28 home record points to how well they protect their own field. Shohei Ohtani’s power threat has been central to keeping their run production elevated, while Freddie Freeman continues to provide stability in the middle of the order. Even with a 2-3 mark in their last 5, their offensive output remains high, averaging 7.0 runs in that stretch.

Andy Pages has emerged as a reliable run producer, adding depth to an already dangerous lineup that thrives in Los Angeles. The Dodgers’ ability to sustain scoring regardless of recent win-loss variance makes them a confident play, particularly with their home splits reinforcing their edge. In a game where volume of runs will dictate the outcome, their consistent production at Dodger Stadium sets them apart from Philadelphia Phillies’ road profile.

• Batting Average: 0.254
• Total Runs Scored: 767
• Home Runs: 220
• OBP: 0.33
• SLG: 0.439
• OPS: 0.769
• ERA: 4.04
• WHIP: 1.27

Away Record: 36-39 • Home Record: 48-28
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (7.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.2 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)

• September 16, 2025: PHI 9 @ LAD 6
• September 15, 2025: PHI 6 @ LAD 5
• April 06, 2025: LAD 7 @ PHI 8
• April 05, 2025: LAD 3 @ PHI 1
• April 04, 2025: LAD 2 @ PHI 3

Over/Under Trends

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.9 total runs, with 9 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Dodgers’ 48-28 home record combined with consistent offensive output from Ohtani, Freeman, and Pages makes them the sharper side despite Philadelphia Phillies’ recent surge. With Los Angeles averaging 7.0 runs across their last 5 games at home and sustaining a high-scoring profile, they are positioned to neutralize the Phillies’ road form and deliver the result bettors should expect.

This sets up cleanly for the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish on top.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Los Angeles Dodgers at 7.0 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 6.8, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 13.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.

Bookmakers

These lines come from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, FanDuel, Bovada, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS, Fanatics.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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