Introduction

More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Los Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia has surged with an 8-2 mark across its last 10 games, averaging 6.3 runs per contest, while Los Angeles has been steady but less explosive at 5.5 runs per game over the same span. This matchup analysis highlights two lineups capable of producing crooked numbers, and the Phillies’ recent consistency positions them as the sharper side. With both teams pushing scoring well beyond league averages, this MLB prediction leans firmly on Philadelphia Phillies’ momentum and offensive rhythm to dictate pace against a Dodgers team still searching for sustained dominance.

Game Time

Game time: Monday, September 15 at 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium, a balanced venue where matchups drive scoring.

Odds & Spread Line

• Philadelphia Phillies: +115
• Los Angeles Dodgers: -135

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-200)
• Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+165)

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 89-60 (Win %: 0.597)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 83-65 (Win %: 0.561)

Injury Report

The Philadelphia Phillies are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Will Smith (Hand), listed as 10-Day-IL; Roki Sasaki (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Dalton Rushing (Lower Leg), listed as 10-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.244 AVG, 51 HR, 126 RBI
• Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
• Bryce Harper: 0.266 AVG, 26 HR, 72 RBI

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Shohei Ohtani: 0.282 AVG, 49 HR, 93 RBI
• Freddie Freeman: 0.293 AVG, 20 HR, 81 RBI
• Andy Pages: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 80 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies enter this matchup with a 4-1 record in their last five, fueled by 7.2 runs per game, signaling a lineup peaking at the right time. Kyle Schwarber’s power production has been a constant spark, while Trea Turner’s on-base skills have kept pressure on opposing pitchers. The road record sits slightly above .500, which complements their recent surge and indicates they can translate hot hitting away from home.

Philadelphia Phillies’ 8-2 stretch over the last 10 contests makes clear a confident group finding balance between power and situational hitting. Bryce Harper’s steady run production ensures protection for the middle of the order, which has been critical to maintaining scoring consistency. With this offense firing in rhythm, the Phillies profile as the more reliable side to sustain their run-scoring pace against Los Angeles.

• Batting Average: 0.262
• Total Runs Scored: 725
• Home Runs: 188
• OBP: 0.332
• SLG: 0.432
• OPS: 0.764
• ERA: 3.78
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 38-37 • Home Record: 51-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (7.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.3 RPG)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have gone 4-1 across their last five, averaging 8.0 runs per game, showing they are fully capable of offensive bursts at home. Shohei Ohtani’s power has been a consistent weapon, but the team has been less dominant over a 6-4 stretch in their last 10, suggesting volatility against stronger pitching. Despite their 48-26 home record, the inconsistency in recent weeks leaves them vulnerable to a surging Philadelphia team.

Freddie Freeman continues to provide steady production, while Andy Pages has added depth to the lineup, but Los Angeles has not matched Philadelphia Phillies’ sustained efficiency. Their scoring profile is strong, yet the Phillies’ current form and sharper situational play tilt the betting edge away from the Dodgers. The home advantage is not enough to outweigh the opponent’s superior momentum and recent results.

• Batting Average: 0.253
• Total Runs Scored: 752
• Home Runs: 217
• OBP: 0.329
• SLG: 0.438
• OPS: 0.767
• ERA: 4.05
• WHIP: 1.27

Away Record: 36-39 • Home Record: 48-26
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (8.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.5 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)

• April 06, 2025: LAD 7 @ PHI 8
• April 05, 2025: LAD 3 @ PHI 1
• April 04, 2025: LAD 2 @ PHI 3

Over/Under Trends

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies’ 8-2 surge paired with 7.2 runs per game in their last five gives them a sharper offensive edge than Los Angeles, whose 6-4 stretch has been less convincing. With head-to-head success on their side and consistent production from Schwarber, Turner, and Harper, the Phillies are positioned to extend their winning rhythm against a Dodgers team that has shown cracks despite home-field advantage.

The Philadelphia Phillies at +115 check enough boxes to be the value side.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Los Angeles Dodgers have produced 8.0 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies 7.2. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 15.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM.

Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

X (Twitter)