MLB Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Sunday, September 21 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PHI | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -125 | +105 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (125) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Record | 92–62 | 77–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia enters this matchup analysis riding a 7-3 mark over its last 10 games, averaging 6.2 runs in that span, while Arizona has been more modest at 4.8 runs across the same stretch. The Phillies’ balanced attack combined with steadier pitching has created a clear betting edge, and their recent form on the road shows enough consistency to trust them against a .500 opponent. With both sides trending toward competitive but lower-scoring contests, this MLB prediction points firmly toward Philadelphia taking control while the total tilts Under.
Game Time
On tap at Sunday, September 21 at 04:10 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Philadelphia Phillies: -125
- Arizona Diamondbacks: +105
Total: 9
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+125)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-145)
Latest Team Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 92-62 (Win %: 0.597)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 77-77 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies are missing Edmundo Sosa (Groin), listed as 10-Day-IL; Trea Turner (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL; Jose Alvarado (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.241 AVG, 53 HR, 128 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.266 AVG, 27 HR, 75 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.289 AVG, 19 HR, 97 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.259 AVG, 30 HR, 78 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.279 AVG, 26 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies’ 3-2 mark across the last 5 games shows steady play, with 5.2 runs per outing supporting a lineup that remains productive even on the road. Kyle Schwarber’s power presence has anchored the offense, and Bryce Harper’s ability to drive in runs adds depth to their scoring profile. Their 41-39 road record demonstrates resilience away from home, reinforcing their status as the sharper side in this matchup.
Across the last 10 games, the Phillies have surged to a 7-3 record while averaging 6.2 runs, signaling a confident and consistent rhythm. Trea Turner’s ability to get on base has been instrumental in keeping innings alive, allowing Philadelphia to string together scoring opportunities. The offense and pitching balance, supported by a 3.84 ERA on the season, position this team as the more reliable wager.
- Batting Average: 0.26
- Total Runs Scored: 751
- Home Runs: 199
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.432
- OPS: 0.762
- ERA: 3.84
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 41-39 • Home Record: 51-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.2 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks’ 3-2 record across the last 5 games reflects a modest stretch, with just 4.2 runs per contest indicating inconsistent offensive output. Geraldo Perdomo has been a steady contributor, but the supporting cast has not generated enough sustained rallies at home. Their 41-36 home record is competitive, yet the overall production has not matched Philadelphia Phillies’ recent scoring pace.
Over the last 10 games, Arizona sits at 6-4 with 4.8 runs on average, showing flashes of competence but lacking the punch to separate against stronger teams. Corbin Carroll brings power, and Ketel Marte provides balance, but the lineup has not consistently cashed in on scoring chances. With a season ERA of 4.46, their pitching leaves too much margin for error against a Phillies team in form.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 760
- Home Runs: 206
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.434
- OPS: 0.757
- ERA: 4.46
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 41-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Philadelphia Phillies lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- September 20, 2025: PHI 3 @ ARI 4
- September 19, 2025: PHI 8 @ ARI 2
- May 04, 2025: ARI 11 @ PHI 9
- May 03, 2025: ARI 2 @ PHI 7
- May 02, 2025: ARI 2 @ PHI 3
Over/Under Trends
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.9 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ 7-3 surge over the last 10 games, combined with their superior run production and steadier pitching metrics, makes them the clear side over an Arizona team stuck in inconsistency. With Schwarber and Harper driving the middle of the order and recent head-to-head success, the Phillies are positioned to take control in this matchup.
Data supports the Philadelphia Phillies as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 4.2 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 5.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetRivers, BetMGM
MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
