MLB Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Friday, September 19 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PHI | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (159) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Record | 91–62 | 77–76 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies enter this matchup analysis riding an 8-2 surge across their last 10 games, producing 6.1 runs per contest, while the Diamondbacks have been more uneven at 5-5 over the same span. Philadelphia Phillies’ offense has been relentless, with Kyle Schwarber’s power and Trea Turner’s contact balance fueling consistency that Arizona has struggled to match. With both sides averaging over 5 runs per game recently, this MLB prediction leans toward a high-scoring affair where the Phillies’ sharper form provides the betting edge.
Game Time
Taking place at Friday, September 19 at 09:40 PM ET under the roof at Chase Field, a balanced scoring environment.
Odds & Spread Line
- Philadelphia Phillies: +105
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -125
Total: 9.5
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+159)
Latest Team Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 91-62 (Win %: 0.595)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 77-76 (Win %: 0.503)
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies are missing Edmundo Sosa (Groin), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Tyler Locklear (Elbow), listed as 10-Day-IL; Pavin Smith (Quadriceps), listed as 60-Day-IL; Cristian Mena (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Kevin Ginkel (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Tommy Henry (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.243 AVG, 53 HR, 128 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 27 HR, 75 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.289 AVG, 19 HR, 97 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.258 AVG, 30 HR, 78 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.275 AVG, 25 HR, 66 RBI
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 3-2 stretch in their last 5 games speaks to balanced form, backed by 5.2 runs per game during that span. On the road, their 40-38 record shows they can travel well enough to compete in any setting, and the offense continues to generate production through multiple contributors. Bryce Harper’s ability to drive in runs adds a layer of reliability to a team already capitalizing on momentum from its 8-2 run over the last 10.
Trea Turner’s contact-driven approach complements Kyle Schwarber’s elite power, giving the Phillies versatility against any pitching staff. The recent 6.1 runs per game over their last 10 highlights an offense trending upward and capable of breaking games open. Philadelphia Phillies’ consistency makes them the sharper side in this contest, with recent form clearly superior to Arizona Diamondbacks’ .500 rhythm.
- Batting Average: 0.259
- Total Runs Scored: 743
- Home Runs: 197
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.431
- OPS: 0.761
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 40-38 • Home Record: 51-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.1 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ 4-1 mark across their last 5 games shows short-term success, yet their 5-5 record in the last 10 illustrates inconsistency. Corbin Carroll’s power has been a key driver, but the team’s overall scoring profile has not matched Philadelphia Phillies’ sustained efficiency. At home, their 40-35 record is solid, but it lacks the punch to overwhelm a Phillies team that has been thriving offensively.
Geraldo Perdomo has been a steady contributor, while Ketel Marte adds balance, but the lineup has not consistently translated into dominant stretches. Their 5.1 runs per game over the last 10 is respectable, yet it falls behind the Phillies’ higher ceiling. Against an opponent carrying sharper momentum and better recent scoring, Arizona Diamondbacks’ home edge feels diminished.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 758
- Home Runs: 205
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.434
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 4.44
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 40-35
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Philadelphia Phillies lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- May 04, 2025: ARI 11 @ PHI 9
- May 03, 2025: ARI 2 @ PHI 7
- May 02, 2025: ARI 2 @ PHI 3
Over/Under Trends
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 10.3 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Phillies’ 8-2 surge over their last 10, coupled with a 2-1 edge in the season series, speaks to their superior form and ability to handle Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup. With Schwarber, Harper, and Turner all producing, Philadelphia Phillies’ offense has been more reliable than the Diamondbacks’ inconsistent attack, making them the sharper side to back with confidence.
Mismatch vs perception: the Philadelphia Phillies at +105 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Arizona Diamondbacks at 5.2 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 5.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.5. That points toward the Over 9.5.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
