Introduction

More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia has steadied its rhythm with a 3-2 mark in the last five games, while Milwaukee has matched that record but leaned more on offense at 5.8 runs per game. This MLB prediction centers on how the Phillies’ balanced attack and ability to produce timely scoring make them undervalued against a Brewers team that has been more explosive but inconsistent defensively. With both clubs averaging close to double-digit combined runs over their recent stretch, the total is positioned for action above the posted number.

Game Time

On tap at Thursday, September 4 at 04:10 PM ET inside American Family Field, indoor air keeps offense lively.

Odds & Spread Line

• Philadelphia Phillies: +107
• Milwaukee Brewers: -130

Total: 7.5

• Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-194)
• Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+162)

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 80-58 (Win %: 0.58)
Milwaukee Brewers: 85-54 (Win %: 0.612)

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies are missing Zack Wheeler (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.245 AVG, 49 HR, 119 RBI
• Trea Turner: 0.301 AVG, 14 HR, 66 RBI
• Bryce Harper: 0.269 AVG, 23 HR, 64 RBI

Milwaukee Brewers

• Christian Yelich: 0.268 AVG, 27 HR, 92 RBI
• Brice Turang: 0.289 AVG, 17 HR, 69 RBI
• Jackson Chourio: 0.282 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies’ 3-2 record over the last five games reflects a team stabilizing after uneven stretches, with 3.8 runs per game underscoring their ability to manufacture offense even when not at peak production. Kyle Schwarber’s power threat has been a consistent driver, forcing pitchers into tough counts and creating RBI chances. On the road, their 35-36 mark shows they’ve been competitive, and recent form suggests they are positioned to outperform expectations in this spot.

Trea Turner’s consistent contact and Bryce Harper’s ability to produce in high-leverage moments give this lineup multiple layers of scoring threats. With a 5-5 record across the last 10 games averaging 4.9 runs per game, Philadelphia has kept pace offensively against playoff-caliber competition. Their balanced attack and timely hitting are strong indicators that they can dictate tempo even against Milwaukee Brewers’ home strength.

• Batting Average: 0.258
• Total Runs Scored: 660
• Home Runs: 171
• OBP: 0.327
• SLG: 0.424
• OPS: 0.752
• ERA: 3.83
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 35-36 • Home Record: 45-23
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.9 RPG)

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers’ 3-2 record in their last five games shows steady form, with 5.8 runs per game signaling a lineup that has been producing consistently at home. Christian Yelich’s impact in the middle of the order raises their offensive ceiling, but defensive lapses have left them vulnerable in tight contests. Despite a strong 46-25 home record, they’ve shown susceptibility when opponents maintain pressure across multiple innings.

Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have given Milwaukee valuable depth, yet their 5-5 mark over the last 10 games demonstrates that scoring bursts are offset by inconsistency. While they’ve leaned on offensive firepower, their inability to limit runs has kept games close, creating opportunities for opponents to capitalize late. Against a Phillies group with proven clutch hitters, this inconsistency tips the edge away from the Brewers despite their statistical advantages at home.

• Batting Average: 0.259
• Total Runs Scored: 711
• Home Runs: 151
• OBP: 0.333
• SLG: 0.409
• OPS: 0.742
• ERA: 3.65
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 40-29 • Home Record: 46-25
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.4 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Milwaukee Brewers lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)

• September 03, 2025: PHI 3 @ MIL 6
• September 01, 2025: PHI 10 @ MIL 8
• June 01, 2025: MIL 5 @ PHI 2
• May 31, 2025: MIL 17 @ PHI 7
• May 30, 2025: MIL 6 @ PHI 2

Over/Under Trends

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.

Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 7.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies’ recent balance of power hitting and consistent run production makes them the sharper side against a Milwaukee group that has struggled to translate home scoring into decisive wins. With Bryce Harper and Trea Turner anchoring timely offense, the Phillies are well-positioned to exploit the Brewers’ defensive lapses and deliver a strong road result.

Mismatch vs perception: the Philadelphia Phillies at +107 are the sharper angle.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Milwaukee Brewers are at 5.8 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 3.8 — a useful baseline against the total.

These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.

Bookmakers

Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, Caesars, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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