MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins (Sunday, August 31 at 01:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SD | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (157) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.4 | 5.8 |
| Record | 76–60 | 61–74 |
| Lines: BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel +2 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · Minnesota Twins
The Padres and Twins enter this interleague matchup with distinctly different rhythms, but the scoring pace has been anything but quiet as Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 12.0 combined runs. This MLB prediction leans on the fact that San Diego is producing 6.4 runs per game over the last five, while Minnesota is holding steady at 5.8 in that same span. With both teams clearing high totals consistently, the betting edge points toward the Twins’ ability to maximize their home environment and push this contest beyond the posted number.
Game Time
On tap at Sunday, August 31 at 01:05 PM ET inside Target Field, carry is often trimmed.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Diego Padres: +110
- Minnesota Twins: -130
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+157)
Latest Team Records
San Diego Padres: 76-60 (Win %: 0.559)
Minnesota Twins: 61-74 (Win %: 0.452)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.285 AVG, 21 HR, 78 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.293 AVG, 21 HR, 66 RBI
- Gavin Sheets: 0.265 AVG, 18 HR, 60 RBI
Minnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton: 0.269 AVG, 27 HR, 66 RBI
- Trevor Larnach: 0.246 AVG, 16 HR, 53 RBI
- Brooks Lee: 0.246 AVG, 14 HR, 56 RBI
Team Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ 76-60 record reflects a strong overall campaign, but their away split of 33-38 reveals vulnerability outside home comfort. Their last 5 games at 2-3 with 6.4 runs per game show offensive activity but an inability to consistently convert production into wins. Manny Machado’s steady bat adds reliability, yet the group’s inconsistency on the road leaves them prone to being outscored in higher-variance spots.
The 6-4 mark in the last 10 with 5.7 runs per game highlights competitiveness, but not dominance. Ramon Laureano has been a key source of balanced power, while Gavin Sheets adds depth, yet the collective hasn’t translated scoring into decisive road success. Against a Twins team that thrives on home power numbers, San Diego Padres’ uneven away rhythm positions them as underdogs despite their stronger season-long record.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 568
- Home Runs: 116
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.385
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.62
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 33-38 • Home Record: 43-22
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.7 RPG)
Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ 61-74 record doesn’t inspire at first glance, but their home mark of 34-32 shows they are competitive in this environment. Their last 5 games at 2-3 with 5.8 runs per game demonstrate offensive reliability even when results haven’t fully followed. Byron Buxton’s power presence has been the centerpiece, keeping production levels high enough to pressure opponents consistently.
Across the last 10 contests at 3-7 with 4.6 runs per game, the Twins have battled inconsistency, but Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee provide additional punch that keeps scoring potential alive. The home split suggests they stabilize in front of their fans, where their power numbers rise to match the venue. With the Padres weaker on the road, Minnesota Twins’ balance of power and environment tilts the betting edge toward them.
- Batting Average: 0.238
- Total Runs Scored: 563
- Home Runs: 160
- OBP: 0.311
- SLG: 0.398
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 4.43
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 27-42 • Home Record: 34-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- August 30, 2025: SD 12 @ MIN 3
- August 29, 2025: SD 4 @ MIN 7
Over/Under Trends
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 12.0 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Twins’ 34-32 home record paired with consistent offensive output from Byron Buxton ensures they are positioned to dictate pace against a Padres team that struggles away from home. With San Diego showing uneven results in their last five while Minnesota has already proven they can match run production head-to-head, the confidence side rests with the Twins to secure the win.
Confidence sits with the Minnesota Twins based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Minnesota Twins have produced 5.8 RPG and the San Diego Padres 6.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 12.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM.
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