Introduction

More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · Colorado Rockies

San Diego enters this matchup analysis on a cold stretch after going 1-4 in their last five, but Colorado Rockies’ 2-8 record over the last ten spotlights even deeper struggles. The Padres still control the head-to-head series 6–2 across the last eight meetings, proving their ability to handle this opponent consistently. With Colorado averaging just 4.4 runs per game over their last ten, this sets up as a prime MLB prediction spot to back San Diego while leaning toward a lower-scoring finish under the inflated total.

Game Time

Scheduled for Sunday, September 7 at 03:10 PM ET at hitter-friendly Coors Field, where thin air inflates offense.

Odds & Spread Line

• San Diego Padres: -233
• Colorado Rockies: +198

Total: 11

• Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-155)
• Run Line — Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (+130)

Latest Team Records

San Diego Padres: 76-65 (Win %: 0.539)
Colorado Rockies: 40-101 (Win %: 0.284)

Injury Report

The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Colorado Rockies are missing Dugan Darnell (Hip), listed as 60-Day-IL; Seth Halvorsen (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL; Zachary Agnos (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Key Player Stats

San Diego Padres

• Ramon Laureano: 0.301 AVG, 22 HR, 70 RBI
• Manny Machado: 0.279 AVG, 22 HR, 81 RBI
• Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.262 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI

Colorado Rockies

• Hunter Goodman: 0.284 AVG, 29 HR, 86 RBI
• Mickey Moniak: 0.267 AVG, 19 HR, 57 RBI
• Jordan Beck: 0.273 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI

Team Analysis

San Diego Padres

The Padres’ 1-4 record over the last five games highlights a slump, but their 76-65 season mark reinforces that this group has a proven winning base. Even in this stretch they’ve maintained 4.0 runs per game, and with Manny Machado driving in runs consistently, the offense has the tools to rebound. Road form remains slightly negative at 34-40, but historically their lineup has elevated in Coors Field environments.

Fernando Tatis Jr. adds balance with his ability to produce runs in key situations, while Ramon Laureano’s consistency at the plate keeps traffic on base. Despite the recent dip, San Diego Padres’ pitching staff has a strong 3.68 ERA on the year, which is a clear separator against Colorado Rockies’ inflated staff numbers. The Padres’ ability to limit damage while capitalizing on timely hits makes them the sharper betting side.

• Batting Average: 0.252
• Total Runs Scored: 602
• Home Runs: 123
• OBP: 0.322
• SLG: 0.385
• OPS: 0.707
• ERA: 3.68
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 34-40 • Home Record: 43-25
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.8 RPG)

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies’ 1-4 record in their last five with 5.0 runs per game shows they can put up numbers but lack the pitching stability to close out contests. Hunter Goodman has been the centerpiece of their offense, yet his production has not been enough to overcome the team’s 40-101 overall record. At home, their 23-51 mark is evidence that Coors Field advantage has been neutralized by their inability to control opposing bats.

Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck provide secondary support, but the Rockies’ 6.0 ERA keeps them in constant deficit positions. Even when the lineup produces mid-level run totals, the pitching collapse prevents them from sustaining momentum across series. This persistent imbalance makes them a liability against a Padres team that has repeatedly exposed them head-to-head.

• Batting Average: 0.242
• Total Runs Scored: 541
• Home Runs: 143
• OBP: 0.299
• SLG: 0.395
• OPS: 0.694
• ERA: 6.0
• WHIP: 1.6

Away Record: 17-51 • Home Record: 23-51
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (4.4 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

San Diego Padres lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)

• September 06, 2025: SD 10 @ COL 8
• September 05, 2025: SD 0 @ COL 3
• May 11, 2025: SD 3 @ COL 9
• May 10, 2025: SD 21 @ COL 0
• May 09, 2025: SD 13 @ COL 9
• April 13, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 6
• April 12, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 2
• April 11, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 8

Over/Under Trends

San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 10.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 11.

Colorado Rockies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.7 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 11.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

San Diego Padres’ superior season record, combined with their 6-2 dominance in the head-to-head series, makes them the clear side against a Rockies team that continues to collapse at home. With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramon Laureano generating consistent offensive pressure and a pitching staff that holds a decisive ERA advantage, the Padres are positioned to control this matchup from start to finish.

The San Diego Padres are the sharp side on form and splits.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Colorado Rockies have produced 5.0 RPG and the San Diego Padres 4.0. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 9.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 11.0. That points toward the Under 11.0.

Bookmakers

Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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