MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres vs New York Mets (Thursday, September 18 at 01:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SD | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 | -143 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (144) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| Record | 83–69 | 78–74 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · New York Mets
San Diego enters this matchup analysis with steady offensive production, averaging 6.4 runs per game over the last five outings, while New York has been less consistent but still dangerous at the plate. This creates a betting preview where the Mets’ home strength and middle-of-the-order power tilt the edge their way despite the Padres holding a better season record. With the Padres’ road mark below .500 and the Mets excelling at Citi Field, the setup points directly toward New York controlling the game flow in a higher-scoring contest.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Thursday, September 18 at 01:10 PM ET inside Citi Field, stronger arms often set the tone.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Diego Padres: +120
- New York Mets: -143
Total: 9
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-170)
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+144)
Latest Team Records
San Diego Padres: 83-69 (Win %: 0.546)
New York Mets: 78-74 (Win %: 0.513)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.279 AVG, 26 HR, 92 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.288 AVG, 24 HR, 76 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.265 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.27 AVG, 36 HR, 119 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.261 AVG, 41 HR, 99 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.264 AVG, 27 HR, 78 RBI
Team Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ 83 wins show overall balance, but their 36-41 road record highlights vulnerability away from home. Their last 5 games at 3-2 with 6.4 runs per game indicate a capable offense, with Manny Machado providing steady run production to keep them competitive. However, their inability to consistently translate that scoring into dominance on the road is a concern against a Mets team that thrives at Citi Field.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games at 6-4 with 4.9 runs per game suggest a steady rhythm, but the reliance on streaky stretches makes them less reliable in a hostile environment. Ramon Laureano has been a stabilizing force, yet the Padres’ road splits weigh heavily against them in this matchup. With Fernando Tatis Jr. contributing but not consistently carrying the offense, the Padres enter this contest as a dangerous but flawed underdog.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 651
- Home Runs: 140
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.39
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 3.67
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 36-41 • Home Record: 47-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.9 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets’ 47-30 home record is the defining advantage, showing consistent success in this venue even as their overall recent form has been weaker. Their last 5 games at 2-3 with 4.4 runs per game highlight an inconsistent offense, but Pete Alonso’s ability to drive in runs at a high clip keeps them dangerous in every matchup. This home-field edge combined with Alonso’s production makes them the sharper side in this contest.
Across their last 10 games at 2-8 with 3.4 runs per game, the Mets have been in a slump, but their lineup still carries game-breaking potential. Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor provide critical balance behind Alonso, giving the Mets multiple threats capable of flipping momentum instantly at Citi Field. Despite recent struggles, their dominance at home makes clear why they are positioned to take control of this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 716
- Home Runs: 211
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.756
- ERA: 4.03
- WHIP: 1.34
Away Record: 31-44 • Home Record: 47-30
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- September 17, 2025: SD 7 @ NYM 4
- September 16, 2025: SD 3 @ NYM 8
- July 30, 2025: NYM 0 @ SD 5
- July 29, 2025: NYM 1 @ SD 7
- July 28, 2025: NYM 6 @ SD 7
Over/Under Trends
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 8.7 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ dominant 47-30 home record combined with the power core of Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor gives them a decisive edge despite recent struggles. Their ability to produce runs in this ballpark and leverage home-field advantage makes them the sharper play to secure the win against a Padres team that falters on the road.
Data supports the New York Mets as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the New York Mets are at 4.4 RPG and the San Diego Padres at 6.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 10.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make San Diego Padres vs New York Mets MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
