MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres vs New York Mets (Tuesday, September 16 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SD | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -108 | -114 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (154) | +1.5 (-190) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 3.4 |
| Record | 82–68 | 77–73 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · New York Mets
The Mets enter this matchup analysis with a sharp home record of 46-29, a decisive edge against a Padres side that has struggled on the road at 35-40. Recent scoring shows San Diego at 5.0 RPG in its last five compared to New York Mets’ 3.4, keeping combined output modest relative to the posted total. With the Padres inconsistent away from home and the Mets’ lineup anchored by power bats, the value tilts toward a disciplined New York win in a lower-scoring contest.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Tuesday, September 16 at 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field, a pitcher-leaning venue with muted carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Diego Padres: -108
- New York Mets: -114
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+154)
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-190)
Latest Team Records
San Diego Padres: 82-68 (Win %: 0.547)
New York Mets: 77-73 (Win %: 0.513)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.277 AVG, 25 HR, 88 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.286 AVG, 23 HR, 75 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.264 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.266 AVG, 34 HR, 117 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.262 AVG, 40 HR, 98 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.263 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Team Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Padres have posted a 3-2 mark in their last 5 games, averaging 5.0 RPG, showing a steady but not dominant run of form. Their 6-4 stretch across the last 10 games reflects a team capable of producing offense, yet their 35-40 road record underlines recurring away inconsistencies. Manny Machado has been central to their production, but overall rhythm falters when the lineup travels.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramon Laureano add balance to the order, but the offense has not consistently traveled, leaving key scoring gaps against stingy home opponents. Despite a respectable season record, the Padres’ away splits remain a liability in high-leverage betting spots. The data suggests limited upside against a Mets team that thrives at home in this environment.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 641
- Home Runs: 135
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.64
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 47-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.9 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets’ last 5 games show a 1-4 skid with 3.4 RPG, and their 2-8 mark across the last 10 confirms offensive struggles. However, their 46-29 home record highlights a clear venue advantage that offsets recent scoring droughts. Pete Alonso’s power presence ensures run potential remains dangerous even in low-output stretches.
Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor bring balance and situational hitting that can break through against visiting pitchers. While the team’s recent slump is notable, Citi Field’s environment and New York Mets’ proven home record create a decisive edge. Supporting trends point to a bounce-back spot, with the Mets’ home consistency outweighing the Padres’ road vulnerabilities.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 704
- Home Runs: 203
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.753
- ERA: 4.01
- WHIP: 1.34
Away Record: 31-44 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 3–0 (Last 3 games)
- July 30, 2025: NYM 0 @ SD 5
- July 29, 2025: NYM 1 @ SD 7
- July 28, 2025: NYM 6 @ SD 7
Over/Under Trends
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ 46-29 home record paired with elite run producers like Alonso, Soto, and Lindor outweighs recent scoring struggles and positions them as the superior side. With the Padres’ inconsistency on the road and Citi Field’s tilt toward pitchers, the Mets hold the clear betting edge in this matchup.
Form and matchup edges favor the New York Mets — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the New York Mets have produced 3.4 RPG and the San Diego Padres 5.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 16, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How does Parlamaz make San Diego Padres vs New York Mets MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
