MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers (Saturday, August 16 at 09:10 PM ET)
Introduction
More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has dominated this matchup, taking 4 of the last 5 meetings, a trend that weighs heavily in this MLB prediction. The Padres enter with a 4-1 run in their last five, showcasing offensive rhythm, but their road record remains under .500 and limits trust away from home. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ lineup has consistently generated power, and their home splits provide a decisive edge. With both teams combining for double-digit runs recently, this game sets up as a value spot on the home side and the Over.
Game Time
Taking place at Saturday, August 16 at 09:10 PM ET inside Dodger Stadium, totals often track with starting pitching.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Diego Padres: +108
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -130
Total: 8
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-207)
- Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+168)
Latest Team Records
San Diego Padres: 69-52 (Win %: 0.57)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 68-53 (Win %: 0.562)
Injury Report
The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Roki Sasaki (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.296 AVG, 20 HR, 72 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.296 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.266 AVG, 17 HR, 49 RBI
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani: 0.284 AVG, 43 HR, 79 RBI
- Freddie Freeman: 0.3 AVG, 14 HR, 66 RBI
- Andy Pages: 0.278 AVG, 19 HR, 69 RBI
Team Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Padres have surged recently with a 4-1 record in their last five games, averaging 5.6 runs per contest during that stretch. Manny Machado continues to be the anchor of the offense, while Ramon Laureano has provided timely production to support rallies. Despite this burst, their 31-33 road record highlights inconsistency away from home, which raises questions about their ability to sustain momentum against elite competition in Los Angeles.
Fernando Tatis Jr. adds another layer of offensive threat, but the Padres’ success often dips when removed from their favorable home environment. Their 7-3 mark across the last ten reflects strong form overall, yet the defense and pitching staff face an uphill battle against a Dodgers lineup that punishes mistakes. San Diego Padres’ current rhythm makes them competitive, but the situational splits and opponent strength tilt the advantage toward Los Angeles.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 509
- Home Runs: 103
- OBP: 0.323
- SLG: 0.383
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.55
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 31-33 • Home Record: 38-20
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.0 RPG)
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have stumbled recently with a 1-4 stretch across their last five, but their 39-24 home record drives home how effective they are inside Dodger Stadium. Shohei Ohtani’s power output has been relentless all season, and his presence ensures that Los Angeles can flip games quickly with one swing. Even with a recent dip, the Dodgers’ offensive profile remains dangerous, averaging 5.3 runs per game over their last ten.
Freddie Freeman’s consistency and Andy Pages’ emerging production provide critical balance behind Ohtani, giving the Dodgers multiple run-producing options. While the pitching has been less efficient in recent weeks, the offensive potential at home offsets those concerns, especially against a Padres team that has struggled outside San Diego. The recent head-to-head dominance further amplifies confidence that Los Angeles will reassert control in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.255
- Total Runs Scored: 626
- Home Runs: 180
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.441
- OPS: 0.773
- ERA: 4.17
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 30-29 • Home Record: 39-24
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Los Angeles Dodgers lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- August 15, 2025: SD 2 @ LAD 3
- June 19, 2025: SD 5 @ LAD 3
- June 18, 2025: SD 3 @ LAD 4
- June 17, 2025: SD 6 @ LAD 8
- June 16, 2025: SD 3 @ LAD 6
Over/Under Trends
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Dodgers’ superior home record, combined with their 4-1 dominance in the last five head-to-head meetings, positions them as the clear moneyline side. Ohtani, Freeman, and Pages anchor a lineup that consistently generates production, and their ability to score in bunches neutralizes the Padres’ recent surge. With situational edges at home and proven success in this matchup, Los Angeles is the sharper play to back with confidence.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4.4 RPG and the San Diego Padres at 5.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward a Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, FanDuel, Caesars, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 16, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
