Introduction

More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees

The Yankees have ripped off a 5-0 surge while averaging 6.0 runs per game, but this matchup analysis shows Baltimore primed to break through despite that hot streak. The Orioles’ recent 2-3 stretch has masked the fact that their lineup features multiple young hitters capable of punishing mistakes, and their road scoring profile suggests they can elevate against a staff that has carried a heavy workload. With the Yankees’ offense pushing games toward higher totals and Baltimore Orioles’ bats showing flashes, this MLB prediction leans toward value on the visitors and a game script that clears the number.

Game Time

This one goes at Sunday, September 28 at 03:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right boosts pull-side power.

Odds & Spread Line

• Baltimore Orioles: +162
• New York Yankees: -185

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-125)
• Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+105)

Latest Team Records

Baltimore Orioles: 75-86 (Win %: 0.466)
New York Yankees: 93-68 (Win %: 0.578)

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles are missing Albert Suarez (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Chayce McDermott (Back), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

The New York Yankees are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.274 AVG, 16 HR, 67 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.242 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.262 AVG, 16 HR, 40 RBI

New York Yankees

• Aaron Judge: 0.331 AVG, 53 HR, 114 RBI
• Cody Bellinger: 0.272 AVG, 29 HR, 98 RBI
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.243 AVG, 31 HR, 80 RBI

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles’ 2-3 mark across their last five shows inconsistency, but their 3.8 RPG clip in that stretch demonstrates that the offense is still generating chances. Gunnar Henderson has been a steadying force in the middle of the order, and his production on the road offers a pathway to exceed expectations against a staff that has been tested. With a 36-44 road record, Baltimore has struggled away from home, yet their ability to string together timely hits keeps them dangerous in high-pressure environments.

Jackson Holliday’s power profile adds another layer of upside, and Jordan Westburg’s run production ensures the lineup isn’t top-heavy. The Orioles’ last 10 games at 2.8 RPG reflect a dip, but given the Yankees’ recent scoring pace, Baltimore doesn’t need to dominate offensively—just keep pace and capitalize on scoring windows. That balance of youthful upside and situational value makes them a live underdog with betting appeal.

• Batting Average: 0.236
• Total Runs Scored: 674
• Home Runs: 188
• OBP: 0.305
• SLG: 0.395
• OPS: 0.701
• ERA: 4.6
• WHIP: 1.37

Away Record: 36-44 • Home Record: 39-42
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.8 RPG)

New York Yankees

The Yankees’ 5-0 recent run with 6.0 RPG highlights an offense firing on all cylinders, spearheaded by Aaron Judge’s elite production. Their 49-31 home record reinforces how effective they’ve been at Yankee Stadium, where their power bats thrive. That said, the Orioles’ arms have shown an ability to limit damage in spurts, and Baltimore Orioles’ lineup is capable of countering in a high-scoring setting.

Cody Bellinger’s consistency and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s power complement Judge, giving New York multiple threats throughout the order. Their 9-1 record across the last 10 games is dominant, but that level of performance is difficult to sustain, especially against a divisional opponent with familiarity. Baltimore Orioles’ offensive potential ensures this isn’t a one-sided matchup, making the Yankees’ recent surge less of a lock than the records suggest.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 840
• Home Runs: 269
• OBP: 0.332
• SLG: 0.454
• OPS: 0.787
• ERA: 3.94
• WHIP: 1.25

Away Record: 44-37 • Home Record: 49-31
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (6.2 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

New York Yankees lead 7–1 (Last 8 games)

• September 27, 2025: BAL 1 @ NYY 6
• September 26, 2025: BAL 4 @ NYY 8
• September 21, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 1
• September 20, 2025: NYY 6 @ BAL 1
• September 19, 2025: NYY 2 @ BAL 4
• September 18, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 0
• June 22, 2025: BAL 2 @ NYY 4
• June 21, 2025: BAL 0 @ NYY 9

Over/Under Trends

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.6 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Baltimore Orioles’ offensive core has the ability to neutralize a Yankees lineup that has been running hot, and their recent road scoring output shows they can generate enough pressure in this environment. The combination of Henderson, Holliday, and Westburg provides balance that positions the Orioles to capitalize on scoring chances and deliver the upset outright.

The Baltimore Orioles at +162 check enough boxes to be the value side.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the New York Yankees are at 6.0 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 3.8 — a useful baseline against the total.

With both clubs averaging 9.8 runs per game recently, we’re expecting a Over 8.5 outcome.

Bookmakers

These lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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