MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees (Friday, September 26 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BAL | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +127 | -152 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-169) | -1.5 (143) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Record | 75–84 | 90–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees
The Yankees enter this matchup riding a dominant 5-0 streak across their last five games, averaging 5.8 runs per contest, while Baltimore has stumbled to a 2-3 mark over the same stretch. This creates a clear power imbalance in our MLB prediction, with New York showing both offensive depth and consistency that Baltimore has lacked on the road. With the Yankees’ lineup producing at an elite level and Baltimore Orioles’ run production stuck around 3.2 per game recently, the edge in both momentum and scoring output points decisively toward New York, and the total trends lean toward a high-scoring result.
Game Time
Slated for Friday, September 26 at 07:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right boosts pull-side power.
Odds & Spread Line
- Baltimore Orioles: +127
- New York Yankees: -152
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-169)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+143)
Latest Team Records
Baltimore Orioles: 75-84 (Win %: 0.472)
New York Yankees: 90-68 (Win %: 0.57)
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles are missing Sam Basallo (Hand), listed as Day-To-Day; Albert Suarez (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL.
The New York Yankees are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.272 AVG, 16 HR, 67 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.245 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.264 AVG, 15 HR, 37 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.328 AVG, 51 HR, 109 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.269 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.247 AVG, 31 HR, 80 RBI
Team Analysis
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles’ season record reflects inconsistency, and their 2-3 mark over the last five games underlines ongoing struggles to string wins together. With road form sitting below .500, their lineup has not been able to generate reliable scoring bursts, and averaging just 3.2 runs per game in that span reflects a lack of sustained pressure. Gunnar Henderson has provided occasional sparks, but the collective offensive rhythm has not matched the demands of high-leverage games.
Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg have shown flashes of production, but neither has been able to offset the broader inefficiency of a lineup that has been neutral at best over the last 10 games. The team’s 6-4 record across that stretch is serviceable, yet the limited run output highlights why Baltimore struggles to close gaps against stronger opposition. With a negative road record and a pitching staff carrying a middling ERA, the Orioles enter this contest at a clear disadvantage.
- Batting Average: 0.236
- Total Runs Scored: 664
- Home Runs: 183
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.394
- OPS: 0.699
- ERA: 4.57
- WHIP: 1.36
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 39-42
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (3.5 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees have surged at the right time, winning five straight and outscoring opponents by producing 5.8 runs per game in that span. Aaron Judge continues to anchor the lineup with consistent power, giving New York a clear offensive edge over Baltimore. Their 47-31 home record shows that this team thrives in this environment, and the short porch only enhances their run-scoring upside.
Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. add balance to Judge’s production, ensuring this lineup can generate runs from multiple spots. The Yankees’ 8-2 record across the last 10 games demonstrates both form and confidence, and unlike Baltimore Orioles’ inconsistency, New York has been relentless at the plate. With steady pitching support and a top-tier offense, the Yankees are positioned to extend their dominance at home.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 827
- Home Runs: 266
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.454
- OPS: 0.786
- ERA: 3.94
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 44-37 • Home Record: 47-31
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 21, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 1
- September 20, 2025: NYY 6 @ BAL 1
- September 19, 2025: NYY 2 @ BAL 4
- September 18, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 0
- June 22, 2025: BAL 2 @ NYY 4
- June 21, 2025: BAL 0 @ NYY 9
- June 20, 2025: BAL 5 @ NYY 3
- April 30, 2025: NYY 4 @ BAL 5
Over/Under Trends
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.7 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ 5-0 surge, their 47-31 home record, and a lineup anchored by Aaron Judge give them a clear edge over a Baltimore team that has struggled on the road and averaged just 3.2 runs per game in its last five. With head-to-head dominance and multiple offensive contributors in rhythm, the Yankees are the side that controls the matchup from start to finish.
We’re backing the New York Yankees to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the New York Yankees are at 5.8 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 3.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5
Bookmakers
MLB Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
