Introduction

More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · Boston Red Sox

Boston’s 41-24 home record provides a sharp edge in this MLB prediction against a Baltimore side that has struggled to sustain results away from home. The Orioles have surged with a 4-1 mark over their last five games, but their 28-37 road form signals vulnerability. With Boston carrying a stronger overall win percentage and offensive consistency at Fenway, the matchup tilts toward the Red Sox, especially given their ability to generate runs at a steady clip. This game sets up as a high-scoring contest with value leaning toward the home side and the Over.

Game Time

This one goes at Tuesday, August 19 at 07:10 PM ET inside historic Fenway Park, where the Monster turns liners into doubles.

Odds & Spread Line

• Baltimore Orioles: +120
• Boston Red Sox: -147

Total: 9.5

• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-170)
• Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+145)

Latest Team Records

Baltimore Orioles: 58-67 (Win %: 0.464)
Boston Red Sox: 68-58 (Win %: 0.54)

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles are missing Jorge Mateo (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL; Tyler O’Neill (Wrist), listed as 10-Day-IL.

The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.279 AVG, 14 HR, 55 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.277 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.249 AVG, 15 HR, 48 RBI

Boston Red Sox

• Trevor Story: 0.258 AVG, 19 HR, 79 RBI
• Alex Bregman: 0.305 AVG, 16 HR, 52 RBI
• Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles enter this matchup with a 58-67 record and a recent surge, going 4-1 in their last five while averaging 6.8 runs per game. That uptick shows offensive rhythm, but their 28-37 road record underlines inconsistency when traveling. Gunnar Henderson’s steady production has been central to their scoring, yet the team’s overall away numbers highlight vulnerability against higher-caliber home opponents like Boston.

Looking at the broader 10-game window, Baltimore sits at 6-4 with 4.6 runs per game, suggesting competent but streaky scoring. Jordan Westburg’s power has been a factor, but road struggles neutralize that edge against teams with strong home form. Jackson Holliday offers additional run potential, but the Orioles’ uneven pitching staff keeps them exposed against deeper lineups, leaving them as the less reliable betting side in this contest.

• Batting Average: 0.24
• Total Runs Scored: 537
• Home Runs: 150
• OBP: 0.305
• SLG: 0.404
• OPS: 0.709
• ERA: 4.69
• WHIP: 1.38

Away Record: 28-37 • Home Record: 30-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.6 RPG)

Boston Red Sox

Boston sits at 68-58, backed by a dominant 41-24 record at Fenway that provides a clear betting edge. While their last five games have produced a 2-3 mark with 3.2 runs per game, home splits remain decisive. Trevor Story’s run-driving consistency keeps this lineup dangerous, and the Red Sox’s overall production shows they can punish weaker pitching staffs, especially at home.

Over the last 10 games, Boston is 4-6 with 5.2 runs per game, showing they can still generate offense despite recent losses. Alex Bregman’s consistent contact and Wilyer Abreu’s power presence add balance to a lineup that plays bigger in its home park. With a stronger ERA and WHIP profile compared to Baltimore, Boston’s ability to limit damage alongside offensive depth makes them the sharper moneyline side.

• Batting Average: 0.253
• Total Runs Scored: 626
• Home Runs: 151
• OBP: 0.324
• SLG: 0.428
• OPS: 0.752
• ERA: 3.74
• WHIP: 1.29

Away Record: 27-34 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.2 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Baltimore Orioles lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• August 18, 2025: BAL 6 @ BOS 3
• May 25, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 1
• May 24, 2025: BAL 2 @ BOS 1
• May 24, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 6
• May 23, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 19

Over/Under Trends

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.7 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.5.

Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 9.4 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 9.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Boston’s home dominance and stronger pitching metrics tilt this contest in their favor, even with Baltimore Orioles’ recent surge. The Red Sox combine balanced offensive contributions from Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, and Wilyer Abreu with a superior Fenway record that neutralizes Baltimore Orioles’ road inconsistency. With sharper splits and more reliable production in this venue, Boston is the side to back with conviction.

The Boston Red Sox are the sharp side on form and splits.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Boston Red Sox at 3.2 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 6.8, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.5. That points toward a Over 9.5.

Bookmakers

You’ll find these markets at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, FanDuel, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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