MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox (Monday, August 18 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · Boston Red Sox
Boston’s 41-23 home record delivers a clear betting preview edge against Baltimore, whose 27-37 road mark continues to drag down its season. The Orioles have averaged 6.4 runs across their last five games, but Boston’s steadier scoring profile and superior home splits present the more reliable side. With both clubs trending toward higher run environments, this matchup projects value on the favorite and a strong lean toward the total clearing nine.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Monday, August 18 at 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park, quirky angles shape extra-base hit potential.
Odds & Spread Line
- Baltimore Orioles: -104
- Boston Red Sox: -123
Total: 9
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-195)
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+170)
Latest Team Records
Baltimore Orioles: 56-67 (Win %: 0.455)
Boston Red Sox: 68-56 (Win %: 0.548)
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles are missing Zach Eflin (Back), listed as 60-Day-IL; Tyler O’Neill (Wrist), listed as 10-Day-IL; Albert Suarez (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.28 AVG, 14 HR, 53 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.247 AVG, 15 HR, 47 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.267 AVG, 14 HR, 29 RBI
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.26 AVG, 19 HR, 79 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.303 AVG, 16 HR, 52 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.249 AVG, 21 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles’ 56-67 record reflects a team struggling to maintain consistency, particularly on the road with a 27-37 road split. The Orioles have produced 6.4 runs per game over their last five outings, turning in a 4-1 stretch that shows they are capable of bursts of offense. Gunnar Henderson has been a steady contributor, helping drive that temporary uptick, but the team’s broader season-long inefficiency leaves them vulnerable against sharper competition like Boston.
The 6-4 mark over the last 10 games highlights a respectable short-term push, yet the Orioles’ season ERA north of 4.7 continues to undermine their progress. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg have chipped in timely production, but the lack of reliable pitching support often negates any offensive gains. On the road, this group rarely sustains scoring rhythm, and that inconsistency remains a liability against a disciplined opponent with far stronger home splits.
- Batting Average: 0.239
- Total Runs Scored: 525
- Home Runs: 149
- OBP: 0.303
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 4.73
- WHIP: 1.39
Away Record: 27-37 • Home Record: 30-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.5 RPG)
Boston Red Sox
Boston’s 68-56 record is anchored by a dominant 41-23 home performance, a key indicator of their betting strength in this matchup. In their last five games they’ve gone 3-2 while averaging 5.4 runs, showcasing a steady offensive floor. Alex Bregman has delivered consistent contact at the plate, complementing Trevor Story’s power-driven production to maintain scoring reliability.
Even with a 4-6 mark across the last 10 games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.2 runs and maintained control through a 3.73 team ERA, underscoring balance between offense and pitching. Wilyer Abreu’s ability to drive in runs adds another dimension to this lineup, particularly at Fenway where they’ve consistently turned home-field advantage into wins. Their superior situational splits and deeper run support make them the sharper side against Baltimore Orioles’ weaker road form.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 623
- Home Runs: 150
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.428
- OPS: 0.753
- ERA: 3.73
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 27-34 • Home Record: 41-23
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- May 25, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 1
- May 24, 2025: BAL 2 @ BOS 1
- May 24, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 6
- May 23, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 19
- April 03, 2025: BOS 8 @ BAL 4
Over/Under Trends
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 9.5 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Boston’s dominant 41-23 home record, balanced attack averaging over five runs per game, and recent head-to-head control make them the superior side. With Trevor Story and Alex Bregman anchoring a lineup that consistently capitalizes at Fenway, the Red Sox hold a decisive edge over Baltimore Orioles’ uneven road form. This matchup aligns strongly with Boston continuing its home dominance.
Data supports the Boston Red Sox as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Boston Red Sox are at 5.4 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 6.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 11.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward a Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, Bovada, BetUS, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 18, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
