MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres (Wednesday, September 3 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BAL | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (129) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| Record | 62–76 | 76–62 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · San Diego Padres
Baltimore has taken the first two games of this interleague matchup, but San Diego Padres’ 43-24 home record signals a different betting preview for the series finale. Across their last five outings, the Orioles are averaging 6.2 runs per game, while the Padres are still producing 4.6 despite a 1-4 skid. That combined scoring pace leans toward runs clearing the board and highlights why the Padres’ home dominance makes them the sharper side in this MLB prediction.
Game Time
Game time: Wednesday, September 3 at 04:10 PM ET at Petco Park, a run-suppressing coastal venue.
Odds & Spread Line
- Baltimore Orioles: +145
- San Diego Padres: -175
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-150)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+129)
Latest Team Records
Baltimore Orioles: 62-76 (Win %: 0.449)
San Diego Padres: 76-62 (Win %: 0.551)
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles are missing Felix Bautista (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Tyler O’Neill (Wrist), listed as 10-Day-IL; Zach Eflin (Back), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.279 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.245 AVG, 15 HR, 51 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.284 AVG, 21 HR, 79 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.293 AVG, 22 HR, 70 RBI
- Gavin Sheets: 0.268 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles enter at 62-76 with a road record of 32-39, reflecting a lack of consistency when away from home. Their last 5 games show a 3-2 mark with 6.2 RPG, but over the last 10 they’ve dipped to 4-6 with just 4.1 RPG, underscoring volatility in production. Gunnar Henderson has delivered reliable run creation, yet the lineup has not consistently supported him in hostile environments.
Jordan Westburg adds occasional spark, but the team struggles to string together sustained offensive pressure on the road. Jackson Holliday has driven in runs at a steady clip, though the broader lineup remains prone to quiet stretches. Against a Padres staff that thrives at home, Baltimore Orioles’ away form signals difficulty in replicating their recent head-to-head success.
- Batting Average: 0.242
- Total Runs Scored: 605
- Home Runs: 166
- OBP: 0.308
- SLG: 0.405
- OPS: 0.713
- ERA: 4.69
- WHIP: 1.38
Away Record: 32-39 • Home Record: 31-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.1 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres hold a stronger 76-62 record, backed by a commanding 43-24 mark at home that offsets their recent 1-4 stretch. Despite that skid, they’ve still averaged 4.6 RPG across the last 5, demonstrating that offense has not disappeared. Manny Machado continues to be the centerpiece, producing runs that keep San Diego competitive even when results have tilted against them.
Ramon Laureano’s consistent contact and Gavin Sheets’ power presence give the Padres multiple avenues to generate offense. Over their last 10 games they sit at 3-7 with 4.6 RPG, but the home split shows why bettors should expect a rebound. With Petco Park conditions favoring their pitching and lineup depth, San Diego remains positioned to control this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 587
- Home Runs: 120
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.385
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.64
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 33-39 • Home Record: 43-24
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Baltimore Orioles lead 2–0 (Last 2 games)
- September 02, 2025: BAL 6 @ SD 2
- September 01, 2025: BAL 4 @ SD 3
Over/Under Trends
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
San Diego Padres’ 43-24 home record paired with steady run production from Manny Machado, Ramon Laureano, and Gavin Sheets makes them the sharper side despite recent losses. With Baltimore inconsistent on the road and vulnerable to regression after two straight wins, the Padres’ situational edge points squarely to them controlling this matchup.
We’re backing the San Diego Padres — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the San Diego Padres at 4.6 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 6.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetMGM, Bovada, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
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We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
