MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres (Monday, September 1 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BAL | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 | -154 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-154) | -1.5 (128) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Record | 61–75 | 76–60 |
| Lines: BetRivers, FanDuel, Fanatics | ||
More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · San Diego Padres
Baltimore enters this interleague matchup analysis against San Diego with a 1-4 mark over its last 5 games, averaging 5.0 runs per contest despite the slump. San Diego has been steadier but not dominant, splitting its last 10 while putting up 5.1 runs per game. With both lineups producing above 5 runs per game recently, this MLB prediction points directly at offensive output driving the betting edge.
Game Time
Set for Monday, September 1 at 06:40 PM ET at Petco Park, a run-suppressing coastal venue.
Odds & Spread Line
- Baltimore Orioles: +130
- San Diego Padres: -154
Total: 8
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-154)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+128)
Latest Team Records
Baltimore Orioles: 61-75 (Win %: 0.449)
San Diego Padres: 76-60 (Win %: 0.559)
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles are missing Albert Suarez (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Adley Rutschman (Oblique), listed as 10-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.278 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.245 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.287 AVG, 21 HR, 79 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.294 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
- Gavin Sheets: 0.267 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles’ 1-4 stretch across their last 5 games reveals inconsistency, but their 5.0 runs per game in that span shows the offense is still generating opportunities. Gunnar Henderson’s production has kept Baltimore competitive even when the pitching staff falters, and Jordan Westburg adds balance to the lineup. Their 30-39 road record is underwhelming, yet the ability to generate steady run totals makes them a dangerous underdog in this setting.
Across their last 10 contests, a 2-8 record reflects a team struggling to close games, but Jackson Holliday’s power provides a clear upside against San Diego Padres’ staff. The Orioles’ run output of 4.6 RPG over that stretch keeps them in range to outscore opponents if their bullpen holds. Even with road struggles, their lineup depth positions them as a live moneyline option against a favored opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.241
- Total Runs Scored: 593
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.405
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 4.69
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 30-39 • Home Record: 31-37
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (4.6 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ 2-3 record over their last 5 games shows an uneven stretch despite averaging 5.6 runs per game. Manny Machado’s consistent production has kept their offense functional, but the inability to string together wins limits their momentum. Even with a strong 43-22 home record, the current form leaves them vulnerable against a scrappy opponent.
Over the last 10 games, San Diego has split at 5-5, reflecting inconsistency rather than dominance. Ramon Laureano’s run production has been reliable, while Gavin Sheets adds depth, but the pitching has not always matched the offensive pace. Despite a superior season record, the Padres’ recent volatility makes them less appealing compared to Baltimore Orioles’ value side.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 580
- Home Runs: 119
- OBP: 0.323
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.61
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 33-39 • Home Record: 43-22
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 11.1 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Baltimore Orioles’ offense has maintained steady production despite a poor recent record, and the combination of multiple run producers gives them the capacity to outpace a Padres team that has been inconsistent. Factoring in San Diego Padres’ uneven recent form, the Orioles’ undervalued profile makes them the sharper side to back in this matchup.
We’re backing the Baltimore Orioles at +130 as the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the San Diego Padres at 5.6 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 5.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 01, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
