MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros (Saturday, August 16 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · Houston Astros
Houston has won six of its last ten contests, and that steady form sets the tone for this MLB prediction between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles. The Astros continue to play with balance on both sides of the ball, while Baltimore Orioles’ offense has averaged just 3.2 runs per game across its last ten. With Houston owning the stronger overall record and home split, the matchup tilts toward the Astros controlling tempo in a lower-scoring environment.
Game Time
On tap at Saturday, August 16 at 07:10 PM ET inside Minute Maid Park, pull-side power plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Baltimore Orioles: +120
- Houston Astros: -149
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-176)
- Run Line — Houston Astros: -1.5 (+146)
Latest Team Records
Baltimore Orioles: 56-66 (Win %: 0.459)
Houston Astros: 68-54 (Win %: 0.557)
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles are missing Colton Cowser (Concussion), listed as 7-Day IL; Tyler O’Neill (Wrist), listed as 10-Day-IL; Zach Eflin (Back), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Houston Astros are missing Isaac Paredes (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL; Brendan Rodgers (Concussion), listed as 60-Day-IL; Brandon Walter (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL; Zach Dezenzo (Hand), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.283 AVG, 14 HR, 53 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.248 AVG, 14 HR, 45 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.268 AVG, 14 HR, 29 RBI
Houston Astros
- Jose Altuve: 0.281 AVG, 21 HR, 63 RBI
- Jeremy Pena: 0.318 AVG, 13 HR, 45 RBI
- Isaac Paredes: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 50 RBI
Team Analysis
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore enters with a 56-66 record and has been inconsistent offensively, producing 3.6 runs per game over its last five and 3.2 over its last ten. That neutral 3-2 stretch in the last five highlights a group struggling to find rhythm, particularly on the road where they’ve gone 26-36. Gunnar Henderson has been a steady contributor, but overall run support has lagged behind league average, limiting their ability to sustain pressure against higher-tier opponents.
Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg provide some stability in the order, yet the club’s inability to string together big innings away from home has kept them in the middle tier of the standings. With a 0.459 win percentage and a pitching staff carrying a high ERA, Baltimore has lacked the consistency to compete against stronger home teams like Houston. Unless their bats break out unexpectedly, the Orioles’ offensive ceiling looks capped in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 521
- Home Runs: 147
- OBP: 0.304
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 4.75
- WHIP: 1.39
Away Record: 26-36 • Home Record: 30-30
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.2 RPG)
Houston Astros
The Astros’ 68-54 record emphasizes their advantage, and their 37-26 mark at home reinforces why they are tough to fade in this matchup. With 3.8 runs per game across the last five and 4.7 over the last ten, Houston has shown a steady scoring profile that outpaces Baltimore Orioles’. Jose Altuve continues to anchor the offense, setting the tone with consistent production, while the pitching staff’s ERA under 4.00 creates a balanced edge.
Jeremy Pena has been a key factor in maintaining offensive rhythm, and Houston Astros’ ability to generate runs without over-reliance on one bat makes them more sustainable. Their 6-4 record in the last ten reflects stability, and they are positioned to rebound strongly after dropping the most recent head-to-head. At home, the Astros’ controlled pace and superior bullpen numbers give them a clear advantage over a Baltimore squad that has struggled to sustain momentum away from Camden Yards.
- Batting Average: 0.256
- Total Runs Scored: 525
- Home Runs: 135
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.405
- OPS: 0.726
- ERA: 3.78
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 31-28 • Home Record: 37-26
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Baltimore Orioles lead 1–0 (Most recent game)
- August 15, 2025: BAL 7 @ HOU 0
Over/Under Trends
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 9.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Houston Astros’ superior home record, steadier run production, and stronger pitching metrics make them the clear side against an Orioles team that has struggled on the road. With Altuve and Pena driving a more consistent offense and the Astros showing resilience in recent form, the matchup tilts decisively toward the home team. Expect Houston to assert control behind its balanced profile and secure the result.
Data supports the Houston Astros as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Houston Astros are at 3.8 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 3.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 7.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That leans to a Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Current odds sourced from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Fanatics, Bovada, BetUS, BetRivers.
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We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls. Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams. We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds. Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there. Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.MLB Predictions FAQ
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