Introduction

It’s a well-known American League rivalry as the Tampa Bay Rays collide with the New York Yankees. While the energy of the Rays has been slightly stagnant in recent games, the Yankees are showing a confident surge with home advantage on their side. This highly-coveted MLB prediction examines the dynamics of this contest—breaking down the nuances of team form, injury updates, and key player performance.

Game Time

The first pitch is scheduled for Thursday, July 31 at 01:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, one of the league’s premier over venues.

Moneyline Odds

Tampa Bay Rays: +112
New York Yankees: -133
Over/Under Line: 8.5

Latest Team Records

Tampa Bay Rays: 54-54 (Win %: 0.5)
New York Yankees: 58-49 (Win %: 0.542)

Injury Report

The Tampa Bay Rays are missing Alex Faedo (shoulder), who remains on the 60-Day IL. For the New York Yankees, Clarke Schmidt (elbow) is also sidelined on the 60-Day IL. Neither team reports any other major injuries heading into this matchup.

Key Player Stats

Tampa Bay Rays

• Junior Caminero: 0.256 AVG, 27 HR, 70 RBI
• Jonathan Aranda: 0.315 AVG, 12 HR, 52 RBI
• Yandy Diaz: 0.282 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI

New York Yankees

• Aaron Judge: 0.342 AVG, 37 HR, 85 RBI
• Cody Bellinger: 0.282 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.245 AVG, 18 HR, 49 RBI

Team Analysis

Tampa Bay Rays

Though the Tampa Bay Rays have been flashing their potential this season, their inconsistent road form has been an Achilles’ heel. The team’s recent slump, with only 1 win in their last 5 games, signals that they need a rebound. Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz could be the spark they need to turnaround this sluggish spell. However, the team’s dismal offensive performance, averaging only 3.2 runs per game recently, suggests that they might have their work cut out for them.

Junior Caminero’s sturdy presence at bat may add some firepower for the Rays, but their lack of overall scoring consistency presents a problem. With the team operating below par, they are desperately looking for ways to counter their adversaries and boost their scoring chances. Can they rally and put up numbers that defy their current trend? Time will tell.

• Batting Average: 0.255
• Total Runs Scored: 497
• Home Runs: 117
• OPS: 0.722
• ERA: 3.87
• WHIP: 1.21

Away Record: 23-27 • Home Record: 31-28
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.7 RPG)

---

New York Yankees

With home advantage and solid recent form, the Yankees look set to capitalize on their momentum. Coming from 3 wins in their last 5 games, they have shown more consistency in their scoring potential, averaging 4.4 runs per game over the same period. The likes of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger have been key contributors to the team’s offensive rhythm and will be the ones to watch in this contest.

Furthermore, their robust home record is testament to the team’s strength and ability to capitalize on their home ground advantage. Given the Yankees’ current trajectory, they could exploit the modest dip in momentum of the Rays and maintain their upward trend. However, as always in baseball, the final outcome will align with the team who best exercises their offensive and defensive strengths on the day of the game.

• Batting Average: 0.252
• Total Runs Scored: 552
• Home Runs: 170
• OPS: 0.782
• ERA: 3.99
• WHIP: 1.25

Away Record: 26-27 • Home Record: 33-22
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.1 RPG)

---

Head-to-Head History

New York Yankees lead 6–4 (Last 10 games)

• 2025-07-30: TB 4 @ NYY 5
• 2025-07-29: TB 5 @ NYY 7
• 2025-07-28: TB 4 @ NYY 2
• 2025-05-04: TB 7 @ NYY 5
• 2025-05-03: TB 3 @ NYY 2
• 2025-05-02: TB 0 @ NYY 3
• 2025-04-20: NYY 4 @ TB 0
• 2025-04-19: NYY 8 @ TB 10
• 2025-04-18: NYY 1 @ TB 0
• 2025-04-17: NYY 6 @ TB 3

Over/Under Trends

Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 total runs per game, with 5 of those going over the posted total of 8.5.

New York Yankees’ last 10 games have seen an average of 9.6 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same line of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Given their recent form, the New York Yankees appear well-positioned to leverage their home-field advantage. With the Tampa Bay Rays struggling on the road, the Yankees are primed to capitalize on that inconsistency. Their core hitters have been fueling momentum, and the team seems poised to build on that success. In this confident MLB prediction, the smart play is backing the Yankees as they continue to shape a winning narrative in the Bronx.

This looks like a strong spot for the New York Yankees to come through.

Over/Under Prediction

The New York Yankees are scoring 4.4 runs per game across their last five, and the Tampa Bay Rays are at 3.2. These teams are combining for a total of 7.6 runs per game recently — which is below the posted total of 8.5. In light of these recent scoring trends, our betting prediction leans toward an Under 8.5 finish.

Bookmakers

These lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.

Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.