Introduction

Get ready for an American League and National League showdown as the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to go head-to-head with the New York Yankees. In this expert MLB prediction, we’ll assess both teams’ current form, key player stats, and recent head-to-head history to provide a comprehensive betting preview.

Game Time

The game kicks off at Sunday, July 27 at 01:35 PM ET in power-packed Yankee Stadium, a right-hander’s paradise.

Moneyline Odds

Philadelphia Phillies: -132
New York Yankees: +108
Over/Under Line: 8.0

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 59-44 (Win %: 0.573)
New York Yankees: 56-47 (Win %: 0.544)

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies: No major injuries reported.
New York Yankees: No major injuries reported.

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.255 AVG, 36 HR, 82 RBI
• Nick Castellanos: 0.27 AVG, 13 HR, 56 RBI
• Trea Turner: 0.296 AVG, 11 HR, 42 RBI

New York Yankees

• Aaron Judge: 0.342 AVG, 37 HR, 85 RBI
• Cody Bellinger: 0.284 AVG, 19 HR, 58 RBI
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.251 AVG, 18 HR, 48 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have been on a roll, showing great consistency and confidence in their recent matches. With their away record standing at a solid 27-25, the Phillies have managed to hold their own on the road. Key players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos have been pivotal in keeping the momentum up for the Phillies. Their recent form, winning 4 out of their last 5 games, indicates a team in rhythm looking to maintain their winning streak.

Not only does their recent form signal strength, but also the Phillies have shown clear dominance in their recent head-to-head history against the Yankees. This trend could carry over to this game, giving them a noticeable edge.

• Batting Average: 0.255
• Total Runs Scored: 481
• Home Runs: 118
• OPS: 0.739
• ERA: 3.72
• WHIP: 1.25

Away Record: 27-25 • Home Record: 33-19
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (7.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.8 RPG)

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have been struggling to find their footing in recent games. Despite boasting a decent home record of 30-21, their recent form does not inspire confidence. The Yankees will need key players like Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to step up and help turn things around.

The Yankees will need to notably improve their run-scoring consistency and confidence to compete against the in-form Phillies. Considering their recent 1-4 run over the past 5 games, the Yankees will be looking to leverage their strong home record to turn things around.

• Batting Average: 0.254
• Total Runs Scored: 535
• Home Runs: 167
• OPS: 0.788
• ERA: 3.97
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 26-27 • Home Record: 30-21
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.1 RPG)

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Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 2–0 (Last 2 games)

• 2025-07-26: PHI 9 @ NYY 4
• 2025-07-25: PHI 12 @ NYY 5

Over/Under Trends

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 total runs per game, with 7 of those going over the posted total of 8.0.

New York Yankees’ last 10 games have seen an average of 10.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same line of 8.0.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Considering the recent form of the Phillies and the Yankees’ troubles at home, backing the Philadelphia Phillies seems like the smart move. Their superior momentum, recent head-to-head record, and the scoring consistency of key players like Schwarber and Castellanos should steer them towards a victory.

Given recent form and matchup edges, the Philadelphia Phillies are the smart side.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five games, the New York Yankees have posted 3.8 runs per game, while the Philadelphia Phillies have averaged 7.2. This recent output is key to judging the total.

These teams are combining for 11.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0, a crucial pivot point in betting markets. Our pick is Over 8.0.

Bookmakers

Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, Bovada, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, DraftKings, BetRivers.
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