Introduction

A National League showdown is about to unfold as the Cincinnati Reds cross paths with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams find themselves in vastly different stages of their respective seasons, with the Reds striving to maintain their momentum, while the Pirates look to leverage their home advantage to upset the odds. This MLB prediction analyzes the teams’ recent records, key player performances, and other vital stats to provide a comprehensive betting preview.

Game Time

The game is set for Friday, August 8 at 06:40 PM ET inside PNC Park, where the scoring often takes a dip.

Odds & Spread Line

Cincinnati Reds: -105
Pittsburgh Pirates: -120
Over/Under Line: 8.0
Spread Line:
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+160)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-194)

Latest Team Records

Cincinnati Reds: 60-55 (Win %: 0.522)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 49-66 (Win %: 0.426)

Injury Report

Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Cincinnati Reds

• Elly De La Cruz: 0.279 AVG, 19 HR, 73 RBI
• TJ Friedl: 0.275 AVG, 10 HR, 37 RBI
• Austin Hays: 0.264 AVG, 10 HR, 44 RBI

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Bryan Reynolds: 0.236 AVG, 10 HR, 53 RBI
• Andrew McCutchen: 0.249 AVG, 11 HR, 39 RBI
• Oneil Cruz: 0.208 AVG, 18 HR, 48 RBI

Team Analysis

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are experiencing a turbulent phase in their season. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a 2-3 record in their last five games. Moreover, their offensive performance has been quite lackluster, averaging a mere 2.2 runs per game over the same period. Despite these struggles, key standouts like Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl have been contributing consistently, keeping the Reds’ hopes alive.

On the road, the Reds have a less than stellar record, standing at 27-30. However, their road performance has shown flashes of potential, providing room for an upset. A strong road game could be a much-needed morale booster for the Reds, especially against a home team with a comparable record.

• Batting Average: 0.246
• Total Runs Scored: 521
• Home Runs: 117
• OPS: 0.708
• ERA: 3.87
• WHIP: 1.24

Away Record: 27-30 • Home Record: 33-26
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.6 RPG)

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, are poised to extend their home advantage, backed by a solid 33-27 record at PNC Park. Their recent form has been promising with a 3-2 record in the last five games, averaging a healthy 4.8 runs per game. Players such as Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen have been instrumental in keeping the Pirates’ offensive momentum alive, which could pose a challenge for the Reds.

The Pirates’ recent upward trend and consistent home performance make them a formidable opponent for the Reds. The Pirates will be looking to capitalize on this momentum and deliver a strong performance in front of their home crowd.

• Batting Average: 0.232
• Total Runs Scored: 407
• Home Runs: 81
• OPS: 0.649
• ERA: 3.88
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 17-39 • Home Record: 33-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.6 RPG)

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Head-to-Head History

Pittsburgh Pirates lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• August 07, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 7
• May 21, 2025: CIN 1 @ PIT 3
• May 20, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 1
• May 19, 2025: CIN 7 @ PIT 1
• April 13, 2025: PIT 0 @ CIN 4

Over/Under Trends

Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 total runs per game, with 2 of those going over the posted total of 8.0.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have seen an average of 10.9 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same line of 8.0.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Given the current form and home advantage, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the upper hand in this matchup. They’ve been scoring consistently and their key players are in good form. Moreover, their recent head-to-head results against the Reds further tilt the scales in their favor. All these factors make the Pirates a compelling pick.

We’re siding with the Pittsburgh Pirates to finish on top.

Over/Under Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.8 runs per game across their last five, and the Cincinnati Reds are at 2.2. Recent form suggests where this total might land.

These teams are combining for 7.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. This signals a lean toward an Under 8.0 finish.

Bookmakers

Shop the odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.

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