Introduction

As we cross the mid-point of the season, an American League and National League showdown grips the MLB betting scene. In this high-stakes matchup, the Baltimore Orioles are intent on proving they’re more than just road warriors, while the Philadelphia Phillies aim to leverage their formidable home form. Our MLB prediction uncovers the hidden edges and potential value for savvy sports bettors.

Game Time

Join the action on Monday, August 04 at 06:45 PM ET inside Citizens Bank Park, where high scoring games are more than a mere coincidence.

Moneyline Odds

Baltimore Orioles: +167
Philadelphia Phillies: -185
Over/Under Line: 9.0

Latest Team Records

Baltimore Orioles: 51-60 (Win %: 0.459)
Philadelphia Phillies: 62-48 (Win %: 0.564)

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles are missing Cade Povich (Hip), listed as 15-Day-IL; Grayson Rodriguez (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Philadelphia Phillies are missing Alec Bohm (Ribs), listed as 10-Day-IL; Joe Ross (Back), listed as 15-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.285 AVG, 13 HR, 46 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.259 AVG, 14 HR, 43 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.272 AVG, 12 HR, 27 RBI

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: 0.251 AVG, 37 HR, 87 RBI
• Nick Castellanos: 0.268 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI
• Bryce Harper: 0.269 AVG, 16 HR, 47 RBI

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

With a recent away record of 24-34, the Baltimore Orioles have displayed a real battle spirit, consistently giving their hosts a run for their money. Their key players Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg have been reliable sources of runs, keeping the Orioles competitive in many a tight game.

However, their form has been characterized by caution in the early innings, ensuring a slow build-up rather than scoring big. With the recent injury to Grayson Rodriguez who’s been a solid consistent performer, questions arise as to how they’ll weather this setback in upcoming performances while on the road.

• Batting Average: 0.244
• Total Runs Scored: 486
• Home Runs: 137
• OPS: 0.718
• ERA: 4.84
• WHIP: 1.41

Away Record: 24-34 • Home Record: 27-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (7.3 RPG)

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Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies have been taking advantage of the Citizens Bank Park, positioning themselves confidently in the homely confines with a 35-20 record. Their offense, led by powerful hitters like Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos, has been performing consistently, keeping them in the winning column more often than not.

Despite missing key standouts like Alec Bohm to injuries, they’ve still managed to hold their own successfully. Their recent form, with 5 wins in the last 10 games and averaging 5.5 RPG, demonstrates an ability to turn games around and build a winning momentum from the comfort of their home field.

• Batting Average: 0.254
• Total Runs Scored: 514
• Home Runs: 128
• OPS: 0.738
• ERA: 3.82
• WHIP: 1.25

Away Record: 28-28 • Home Record: 35-20
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.5 RPG)

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Head-to-Head History

No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.

Over/Under Trends

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 10.8 total runs per game, with 5 of those going over the posted total of 9.0.

Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have seen an average of 10.6 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same line of 9.0.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Based on momentum, scoring trends, and their impressive willingness to grapple with formidable hosts, the Baltimore Orioles stand as an underdog with teeth. Despite being on the road, they’ve demonstrated the resilience and grit necessary to triumph. With, standouts like Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg providing a solid offensive backbone, we’re backing the Orioles for the win.

Backing the Baltimore Orioles at +167 here could pay off for sharp bettors.

Over/Under Prediction

Averaging 4.2 runs per game lately, the Philadelphia Phillies are ramping up offensively, while the Baltimore Orioles are modestly putting up 3.6. That could influence how this matchup shapes up against the total.

These teams are combining for 7.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0, a crucial pivot point in betting markets. Our pick is Under 9.0.

Bookmakers

Find these odds at: FanDuel, Bovada, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag.

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