MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds (Sunday, September 7 at 01:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -104 | -118 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (162) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| Record | 76–65 | 70–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ last 10 contests have averaged 11.4 combined runs, with 8 games surpassing today’s posted number, a signal that scoring pace is elevated entering this matchup analysis. The Mets have maintained a .539 win rate overall, but their road form has been shaky, while Cincinnati remains steady at home. With both clubs generating more than six runs per game across their last five, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward a high-scoring contest where the Reds’ situational edge at Great American Ball Park becomes decisive.
Game Time
This one goes at Sunday, September 7 at 01:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -104
- Cincinnati Reds: -118
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+162)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 76-65 (Win %: 0.539)
Cincinnati Reds: 70-71 (Win %: 0.496)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.269 AVG, 33 HR, 113 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.261 AVG, 37 HR, 92 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.266 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.268 AVG, 19 HR, 78 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.314 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI
- Noelvi Marte: 0.288 AVG, 12 HR, 48 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ 3-2 record across their last 5 games reflects a group capable of stringing together wins but still lacking consistency away from home. Pete Alonso and Juan Soto remain the primary sources of power, yet this lineup has relied heavily on spurts of production rather than sustained efficiency. Their 31-39 road record underlines how often their offense stalls when forced out of New York, creating vulnerability against a Reds team comfortable in its own park.
While Francisco Lindor adds balance to the attack, the Mets’ tendency to trade wins and losses over their last 10 contests shows a lack of rhythm. Road struggles continue to weigh heavier than their overall record suggests, with situational performance leaning average at best. Against a Cincinnati team that has proven effective at Great American Ball Park, the Mets’ inconsistencies on the road set them up as the less reliable side.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 679
- Home Runs: 194
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.431
- OPS: 0.761
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 31-39 • Home Record: 45-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (7.0 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ 2-3 mark over their last 5 games hides the fact they’ve averaged 6.6 runs in that span, showing their offense is producing even in defeat. Elly De La Cruz has been a central engine for this lineup, and Miguel Andujar’s steady hitting keeps the order balanced. At home, where they hold a 39-34 record, Cincinnati has demonstrated the ability to turn scoring bursts into wins, making them a dangerous side in this setting.
Noelvi Marte adds another dimension to the lineup, and combined with the Reds’ recent scoring pace, this group has the offensive firepower to overwhelm inconsistent road teams. Their 3-7 record over the last 10 games reflects struggles, but the underlying run production and home stability point toward a rebound spot. With the Mets showing uneven performance away from Citi Field, Cincinnati Reds’ situational edge is clear.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 638
- Home Runs: 138
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 3.96
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 32-37 • Home Record: 39-34
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (5.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Cincinnati Reds lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- September 06, 2025: NYM 3 @ CIN 6
- September 05, 2025: NYM 5 @ CIN 4
- July 20, 2025: CIN 2 @ NYM 3
- July 19, 2025: CIN 5 @ NYM 2
- July 18, 2025: CIN 8 @ NYM 4
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 13.1 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 11.4 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Reds’ superior home record and consistent run production in recent outings give them the edge against a Mets team that struggles on the road. With Cincinnati holding the head-to-head advantage and standouts like Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte driving the offense, the matchup tilts firmly in their favor.
This sets up cleanly for the Cincinnati Reds to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Cincinnati Reds are at 6.6 RPG and the New York Mets at 6.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 13.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
