MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies (Tuesday, September 9 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +106 | -128 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (160) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Record | 76–68 | 84–60 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets enter this matchup having dropped 4 of their last 5 with just 2.4 runs per game in that stretch, while the Phillies have surged to a 4-1 mark over the same span behind steadier run production. This sets the tone for an assertive MLB prediction where Philadelphia Phillies’ consistent home form and deeper lineup strength give them the clear edge. With the Mets’ road record lagging and offensive rhythm fading, the Phillies’ situational control positions them as the sharper betting side in a game where run suppression is likely to define the outcome.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Tuesday, September 9 at 06:45 PM ET inside Citizens Bank Park, short porches boost extra-base damage.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: +106
- Philadelphia Phillies: -128
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-194)
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+160)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 76-68 (Win %: 0.528)
Philadelphia Phillies: 84-60 (Win %: 0.583)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.269 AVG, 33 HR, 113 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.261 AVG, 38 HR, 93 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.241 AVG, 49 HR, 120 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.261 AVG, 24 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ 1-4 record over their last 5 games, paired with just 2.4 runs per game, emphasizes a lineup that is struggling to sustain consistent scoring. Pete Alonso’s power numbers remain impactful, but the lack of collective offensive rhythm limits the lineup’s ability to string together innings. On the road, where the Mets sit well below .500, the lack of production magnifies the challenge against a Phillies team that thrives at home.
Juan Soto’s individual ability to drive runs offers a potential spark, yet the broader offensive inconsistency keeps the Mets from capitalizing on opportunities. Francisco Lindor’s contributions provide balance, but the surrounding lineup depth has not matched up in recent weeks. With a road record of 31-41 and offensive output trending down, the Mets enter this contest in a vulnerable position against an opponent with superior form.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 684
- Home Runs: 197
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 31-41 • Home Record: 45-27
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (6.2 RPG)
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 4-1 stretch over their last 5 with 4.0 runs per game demonstrates a team finding reliable balance at the plate and on the mound. Kyle Schwarber’s long-ball threat continues to stretch opposing pitching, while the lineup’s collective ability to generate runs has been steady even without explosive totals. At home, where they hold a dominant 46-23 record, the Phillies maintain a clear advantage in both confidence and execution.
Trea Turner’s consistency in getting on base and Bryce Harper’s timely production add layers of reliability that complement Schwarber’s power. The Phillies’ 7-3 record across their last 10 further signals a group trending upward as the season progresses. With a strong home edge and steadier scoring profile than the Mets, Philadelphia enters this contest positioned to dictate pace and secure another victory.
- Batting Average: 0.258
- Total Runs Scored: 683
- Home Runs: 178
- OBP: 0.328
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.753
- ERA: 3.79
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 38-37 • Home Record: 46-23
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (3.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 08, 2025: NYM 0 @ PHI 1
- August 27, 2025: PHI 0 @ NYM 6
- August 26, 2025: PHI 5 @ NYM 6
- August 25, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 13
- June 22, 2025: NYM 1 @ PHI 7
- June 21, 2025: NYM 11 @ PHI 4
- June 20, 2025: NYM 2 @ PHI 10
- April 23, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 4
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 12.0 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 6.9 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ 46-23 home record and 7-3 run over their last 10 games highlight a team delivering consistent results in high-leverage environments. With Schwarber driving power, Turner setting the table, and Harper producing timely offense, the Phillies’ balanced attack combined with steadier recent form makes them the superior side to back for this matchup.
Data supports the Philadelphia Phillies as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Philadelphia Phillies have produced 4.0 RPG and the New York Mets 2.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 6.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 09, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
