MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sunday, September 28 at 03:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-150) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| Record | 83–78 | 78–83 |
| Lines: FanDuel, Fanatics | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Miami Marlins
The Mets enter this matchup playing .500 baseball over their last 10, averaging 5.4 runs per game, while Miami has leaned on pitching and tighter contests with just 2.6 RPG in their last five. This MLB prediction points toward a contest where Miami Marlins’ ability to control tempo at home aligns with recent head-to-head dominance, winning five of the last eight meetings. With the Mets struggling on the road at 34-46, the Marlins’ situational edge and lower-scoring profile set the tone for both the side and total.
Game Time
Taking place at Sunday, September 28 at 03:10 PM ET at loanDepot Park, totals stay conservative under the roof.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -130
- Miami Marlins: +110
Total: 8
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+124)
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-150)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 83-78 (Win %: 0.516)
Miami Marlins: 78-83 (Win %: 0.484)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.271 AVG, 37 HR, 124 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.266 AVG, 43 HR, 105 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 31 HR, 85 RBI
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.25 AVG, 15 HR, 77 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.232 AVG, 21 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets sit at 83-78, but their away record of 34-46 highlights a persistent weakness outside New York. Over the last 5 games, they are 3-2 with 5.4 RPG, showing adequate offense but not enough consistency to project dominance. Pete Alonso’s power output remains a threat, yet the team’s inability to replicate home success on the road keeps their ceiling capped.
Looking at the last 10 games, the Mets are 5-5 with the same 5.4 RPG, reflecting a balanced but unspectacular trend. Juan Soto’s production provides stability, but the Mets’ struggles away from home offset individual star performances. Francisco Lindor adds lineup depth, yet the lack of road efficiency makes this team vulnerable against a familiar divisional opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 761
- Home Runs: 223
- OBP: 0.326
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.755
- ERA: 4.05
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 34-46 • Home Record: 49-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.4 RPG)
Miami Marlins
The Marlins stand at 78-83 but have shown competitive rhythm with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, averaging 4.4 RPG. While their last 5 games dipped to 2-3 with 2.6 RPG, the broader trend favors this team finding ways to win tighter contests. Kyle Stowers has been pivotal in providing offensive balance, keeping Miami in games even when scoring is limited.
At home, Miami Marlins’ 37-43 record reflects inconsistency, yet their recent head-to-head control against the Mets emphasizes situational value. Otto Lopez’s steady contributions in run production and Agustin Ramirez’s ability to chip in timely hits give the Marlins lineup versatility. With pitching keeping games within reach and the Mets’ road struggles, Miami Marlins’ ability to dictate pace at home makes them the sharper side.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 705
- Home Runs: 154
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.395
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 4.62
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 37-43
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Miami Marlins lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 27, 2025: NYM 5 @ MIA 0
- September 26, 2025: NYM 2 @ MIA 6
- August 31, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 1
- August 30, 2025: MIA 11 @ NYM 8
- August 29, 2025: MIA 9 @ NYM 19
- August 28, 2025: MIA 7 @ NYM 4
- April 09, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 0
- April 08, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 10
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Miami Marlins’ 7-3 mark in their last 10 games combined with a 5-3 head-to-head edge over New York emphasizes why they are the sharper side. With Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez providing reliable production in a lineup that thrives in tighter games, the Marlins’ ability to control tempo at home makes them the clear moneyline pick.
We rate the Miami Marlins at +110 as the right side at current form.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Miami Marlins have produced 2.6 RPG and the New York Mets 5.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How does Parlamaz make New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
