MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs (Thursday, September 25 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -109 | -101 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (155) | +1.5 (-189) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.8 | 4.8 |
| Record | 81–76 | 88–69 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Chicago Cubs
The Mets and Cubs enter this matchup analysis with contrasting recent rhythms, as Chicago has dropped 4 of its last 5 while New York has split its last 10 but kept scoring steady at 5.4 runs per game. That offensive pace, paired with the Cubs’ 4.4 runs per game across their last 10, sets up an environment where run production is outpacing the posted total. With New York Mets’ lineup anchored by multiple power bats and Chicago Cubs’ staff missing a key arm, this MLB prediction points squarely toward the Mets holding the betting edge and the Over carrying value.
Game Time
Set for Thursday, September 25 at 07:40 PM ET inside Wrigley Field, totals move with the breeze.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -109
- Chicago Cubs: -101
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+155)
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-189)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 81-76 (Win %: 0.516)
Chicago Cubs: 88-69 (Win %: 0.561)
Injury Report
The New York Mets are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Chicago Cubs are missing Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.271 AVG, 37 HR, 123 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.267 AVG, 43 HR, 105 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 29 HR, 83 RBI
Chicago Cubs
- Michael Busch: 0.256 AVG, 31 HR, 84 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.244 AVG, 29 HR, 91 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.242 AVG, 27 HR, 93 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets have played to a 2-3 mark across their last 5 games, but the 5.8 runs per game in that stretch signals an offense that continues to deliver. That scoring clip is backed by consistent production from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, who keep pressure on opposing pitchers. On the road, despite a subpar season record, their lineup depth gives them the ability to steal games against higher-seeded opponents.
Over the last 10 games, New York has gone 5-5 while averaging 5.4 runs, showing steady offensive output even in mixed results. Juan Soto’s presence adds balance to the middle of the order, ensuring they can sustain rallies against a Chicago staff missing a key contributor. With their bats carrying rhythm into this series, the Mets present the stronger betting side despite their away record.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 751
- Home Runs: 220
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.756
- ERA: 4.03
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 32-45 • Home Record: 49-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.4 RPG)
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have stumbled with a 1-4 record in their last 5 outings, averaging 4.8 runs per game but failing to translate offense into victories. Michael Busch has been a steady contributor, but the lack of consistent run support has left them vulnerable. Even with a strong overall season record, their recent form reflects a team struggling to close games at key moments.
Across their last 10 games, Chicago has played to a 5-5 split while averaging 4.4 runs per contest, a modest figure compared to the Mets’ recent pace. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki provide flashes of production, but the lineup hasn’t been able to sustain rallies against tougher pitching. At home, their record is strong, yet the current slump dampens confidence in their ability to outscore New York Mets’ deeper order.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 767
- Home Runs: 211
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.746
- ERA: 3.81
- WHIP: 1.18
Away Record: 42-39 • Home Record: 47-30
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- September 24, 2025: NYM 3 @ CHC 10
- September 23, 2025: NYM 9 @ CHC 7
- May 11, 2025: CHC 2 @ NYM 6
- May 10, 2025: CHC 6 @ NYM 5
- May 09, 2025: CHC 2 @ NYM 7
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 7.9 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ consistent offensive output of over five runs per game across their last 10, combined with a 3–2 edge in recent head-to-head contests, gives them a sharper profile than a Cubs team stuck in a 1-4 slump. With Alonso, Soto, and Lindor driving run production against a weakened Chicago rotation, New York is positioned to control this matchup from the plate and secure the win.
Data supports the New York Mets as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Chicago Cubs have produced 4.8 RPG and the New York Mets 5.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 25, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
