MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (Saturday, August 23 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -132 | +105 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (124) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Record | 68–60 | 58–70 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Atlanta Braves
The Mets enter this matchup analysis on the back of a 3-2 stretch across their last five games, producing 6.8 runs per outing, while the Braves have matched with 6.6 runs over the same span. Both lineups are generating double-digit combined totals with regularity, setting up a high-scoring environment that aligns with an aggressive MLB prediction. With New York holding a stronger overall record and a recent head-to-head edge, the data points firmly toward the Mets carrying momentum and this contest exceeding the posted total.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Saturday, August 23 at 07:15 PM ET at Truist Park, balanced conditions with power upside.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -132
- Atlanta Braves: +105
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+124)
- Run Line — Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-145)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 68-60 (Win %: 0.531)
Atlanta Braves: 58-70 (Win %: 0.453)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.264 AVG, 28 HR, 101 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.247 AVG, 31 HR, 72 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.262 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
Atlanta Braves
- Matt Olson: 0.27 AVG, 19 HR, 72 RBI
- Michael Harris II: 0.257 AVG, 16 HR, 68 RBI
- Austin Riley: 0.26 AVG, 16 HR, 54 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets have split their last ten games at 5-5 while averaging 6.8 runs, showing a consistent offensive rhythm that has kept them in control of most contests. Even with a 27-36 road record, the lineup’s current scoring form makes them a dangerous travel side. Pete Alonso’s power production continues to anchor the order, while Juan Soto’s ability to change games with timely swings adds another layer of reliability for bettors.
Francisco Lindor has kept the middle of the order balanced, ensuring the Mets’ attack doesn’t stall when facing high-leverage spots. That stability has translated into a 68-60 overall mark that reflects their ability to win higher-scoring contests. This balance between consistent run creation and reliable situational hitting makes the Mets the more trustworthy side against an Atlanta team that has struggled to stay above .500 overall.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 569
- Home Runs: 167
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.418
- OPS: 0.739
- ERA: 3.81
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 27-36 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (6.8 RPG)
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta has gone 7-3 in its last ten with 6.5 runs per game, showing a recent uptick in offensive performance at home. Michael Harris II has been a steady contributor, keeping the lineup productive even when run support has fluctuated earlier in the season. Still, their 32-32 home record highlights an inability to consistently dominate in their own park.
Matt Olson’s power and Austin Riley’s run production have kept them competitive, but the Braves’ season-long inconsistency has capped their ceiling. Sitting at 58-70, their win rate speaks to that despite recent scoring spurts, they remain vulnerable against top-half teams like the Mets. That inconsistency makes them a less reliable betting side in this matchup despite flashes of offensive life.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 557
- Home Runs: 143
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.394
- OPS: 0.715
- ERA: 4.3
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 26-38 • Home Record: 32-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- August 22, 2025: NYM 12 @ ATL 7
- August 14, 2025: ATL 4 @ NYM 3
- August 13, 2025: ATL 11 @ NYM 6
- August 12, 2025: ATL 5 @ NYM 13
- June 26, 2025: ATL 0 @ NYM 4
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 12.5 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 12.7 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ balanced scoring profile, combined with a superior season record and a recent edge in head-to-head meetings, makes them the clear side to back. Their lineup led by Alonso, Soto, and Lindor has consistently generated runs at a clip Atlanta has struggled to match over the course of the season. With New York proving more reliable in high-output contests, they project as the stronger moneyline play.
Confidence sits with the New York Mets based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Atlanta Braves have produced 6.6 RPG and the New York Mets 6.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 13.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Current odds sourced from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
