MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (Friday, August 22 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -114 | -106 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (150) | +1.5 (-178) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 7.2 |
| Record | 67–59 | 58–69 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Atlanta Braves
The Mets enter this matchup analysis with a 3–2 edge over Atlanta in their last five meetings and a season win rate above .530, while the Braves sit below .460 overall. New York has averaged 6.2 runs per game across its last 10, and Atlanta has surged to 7.2 runs per game over its last five, signaling a high-scoring pace. That offensive rhythm makes this MLB prediction lean toward the Mets’ lineup delivering again with enough production to back the Over.
Game Time
The action begins at Friday, August 22 at 07:15 PM ET at Truist Park, balanced conditions with power upside.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -114
- Atlanta Braves: -106
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+150)
- Run Line — Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-178)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 67-59 (Win %: 0.532)
Atlanta Braves: 58-69 (Win %: 0.457)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.265 AVG, 28 HR, 101 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.249 AVG, 31 HR, 72 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.258 AVG, 24 HR, 71 RBI
Atlanta Braves
- Matt Olson: 0.27 AVG, 19 HR, 72 RBI
- Michael Harris II: 0.257 AVG, 16 HR, 68 RBI
- Austin Riley: 0.26 AVG, 16 HR, 54 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ 67-59 record reflects a team that has found consistency across the season, and a 3-2 mark in their last five games shows they are holding steady despite competitive opposition. Their 5.0 runs per game in that stretch indicates reliable scoring even when not firing at peak output. Road form has been less dominant at 26-36, but the combination of Pete Alonso’s power presence and Francisco Lindor’s steady production provides the lineup with balance that plays anywhere.
Over the last 10 games, averaging 6.2 runs per contest, New York has shown an ability to generate big innings, supported by Juan Soto’s ability to change games with extra-base hits. The Mets’ pitching staff has kept them competitive with a solid ERA, giving the offense space to control outcomes. With their offensive floor higher than Atlanta Braves’ earlier-season inconsistency, the Mets’ profile fits the moneyline edge in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 566
- Home Runs: 165
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.418
- OPS: 0.739
- ERA: 3.76
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 26-36 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (6.2 RPG)
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have surged with a 4-1 record across their last five games, fueled by 7.2 runs per game that reflect a hot stretch at the plate. Matt Olson has complemented Michael Harris II’s recent contributions, giving Atlanta depth through the middle of the order. Their 32-31 home record shows they are competitive at Truist Park, but the Mets’ ability to limit damage in recent head-to-head games keeps Atlanta from having a clear advantage.
Across the last 10 games, Atlanta Braves’ 8-2 record and 6.5 runs per game highlight an offense firing at its best. Austin Riley’s production has added another layer to their scoring punch, but the pitching staff’s 4.3 ERA leaves openings for opponents to respond. Against a Mets side that has consistently punished mistakes in prior meetings, Atlanta Braves’ current run does not outweigh New York Mets’ superior balance and season-long consistency.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 557
- Home Runs: 143
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.394
- OPS: 0.715
- ERA: 4.3
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 26-38 • Home Record: 32-31
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (7.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- August 14, 2025: ATL 4 @ NYM 3
- August 13, 2025: ATL 11 @ NYM 6
- August 12, 2025: ATL 5 @ NYM 13
- June 26, 2025: ATL 0 @ NYM 4
- June 25, 2025: ATL 3 @ NYM 7
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.9 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 11.6 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ steadier season record, consistent run production over their last 10 games, and proven edge in the recent head-to-head series make them the sharper side. Atlanta Braves’ offense has heated up, but its pitching volatility creates exploitable gaps for a lineup anchored by Alonso, Soto, and Lindor. With better balance and stronger situational performance, New York is the clear moneyline play.
We’re backing the New York Mets — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Atlanta Braves are at 7.2 RPG and the New York Mets at 5.0 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 12.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
