MLB Prediction: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (Sunday, August 31 at 01:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIA | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +155 | -185 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (118) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.0 | 8.6 |
| Record | 64–72 | 73–63 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Miami Marlins · New York Mets
The recent scoring profile in this matchup analysis is impossible to ignore, with the Marlins averaging 6.0 runs per game across their last five and the Mets pushing 8.6 in the same span. That level of production translates into reliable betting value on the total while also highlighting Miami Marlins’ ability to trade blows against a higher-seeded opponent. With both teams locked at 4–4 in their last eight head-to-head contests, this MLB prediction leans toward the Marlins maintaining offensive pressure and forcing another high-scoring result.
Game Time
On tap at Sunday, August 31 at 01:40 PM ET inside Citi Field, stronger arms often set the tone.
Odds & Spread Line
- Miami Marlins: +155
- New York Mets: -185
Total: 8
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-140)
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+118)
Latest Team Records
Miami Marlins: 64-72 (Win %: 0.471)
New York Mets: 73-63 (Win %: 0.537)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.245 AVG, 12 HR, 65 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.229 AVG, 18 HR, 58 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.269 AVG, 31 HR, 110 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 33 HR, 81 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.269 AVG, 25 HR, 75 RBI
Team Analysis
Miami Marlins
The Marlins sit under .500 overall, but their 2-3 record across the last five with 6.0 runs per game shows an offense capable of producing in volume even while splitting results. Kyle Stowers continues to provide middle-order consistency, giving them a reliable run generator against a Mets staff that has shown vulnerability in recent meetings. The away record of 33-35 demonstrates competitiveness on the road, and that travel form adds weight to their underdog value here.
Otto Lopez has been instrumental in extending innings, and Agustin Ramirez adds depth that forces opposing pitchers to work through the order with little relief. The Marlins’ 5-5 mark over the last 10 games with 5.1 RPG drives home their ability to stay balanced, keeping them from dipping into prolonged slumps. With scoring consistency trending upward, this group is positioned to capitalize on the Mets’ aggressive approach and seize control in a high-total environment.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 583
- Home Runs: 130
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.394
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 4.69
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 33-35 • Home Record: 31-37
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.1 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets’ 3-2 record across the last five with 8.6 RPG highlights a potent offense but one that has not translated into dominant win streaks. Pete Alonso’s run production has been a central driver, yet the Mets have allowed opponents to trade runs and keep games close. Their 45-26 home record is strong, but recent inconsistency leaves the door open for Miami to exploit.
Juan Soto’s power complements Francisco Lindor’s ability to extend rallies, which explains why the Mets have averaged 8.3 RPG across their last 10. Still, despite that level of hitting, the Mets have not separated themselves in the standings, sitting just above .500. In a high-scoring context, their pitching staff’s vulnerability creates opportunity for the Marlins to carry value as the sharper betting side.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 641
- Home Runs: 184
- OBP: 0.328
- SLG: 0.428
- OPS: 0.757
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 28-37 • Home Record: 45-26
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (8.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (8.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- August 30, 2025: MIA 11 @ NYM 8
- August 29, 2025: MIA 9 @ NYM 19
- August 28, 2025: MIA 7 @ NYM 4
- April 09, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 0
- April 08, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 10
- April 07, 2025: MIA 0 @ NYM 2
- April 02, 2025: NYM 6 @ MIA 5
- April 01, 2025: NYM 2 @ MIA 4
Over/Under Trends
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 12.3 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 14.0 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Marlins’ ability to generate 6.0 RPG across their last five while splitting results positions them as a live underdog against a Mets side that has struggled to convert high-scoring output into dominant wins. With balanced production from Kyle Stowers, Otto Lopez, and Agustin Ramirez, plus a 4–4 head-to-head mark that proves they can win in this environment, the Marlins present the sharper play to extend their recent offensive impact.
Trend and context support the Miami Marlins at +155 as the bet.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the New York Mets at 8.6 RPG and the Miami Marlins at 6.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 14.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, Caesars.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How does Parlamaz make Miami Marlins vs New York Mets MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
