MLB Prediction: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (Friday, August 29 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIA | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-151) | -1.5 (130) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.4 | 6.4 |
| Record | 62–71 | 72–61 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Miami Marlins · New York Mets
The Mets’ last 10 games have produced 6.8 runs per contest, while the Marlins’ stretch has averaged 3.8 RPG, giving this MLB prediction a clear offensive profile. Miami has shown resilience with a 3-2 record in its last five, and that recent uptick signals a team capable of competing against a stronger record opponent. With both clubs trending toward higher-scoring outcomes, the betting edge leans toward Miami Marlins’ moneyline value and the total clearing expectations.
Game Time
Set for Friday, August 29 at 07:10 PM ET inside Citi Field, stronger arms often set the tone.
Odds & Spread Line
- Miami Marlins: +145
- New York Mets: -175
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-151)
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+130)
Latest Team Records
Miami Marlins: 62-71 (Win %: 0.466)
New York Mets: 72-61 (Win %: 0.541)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.228 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.237 AVG, 11 HR, 59 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.265 AVG, 29 HR, 106 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 32 HR, 79 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.265 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
Team Analysis
Miami Marlins
The Marlins’ 3-2 record across their last five games shows a team stabilizing after uneven stretches, with recent road form at 32-34 reflecting competitiveness away from home. Kyle Stowers has emerged as a consistent run-producer, giving Miami a reliable offensive spark against quality pitching. That balance of recent wins and steady power makes them a live underdog with momentum building in the right direction.
Agustin Ramirez’s run production and Otto Lopez’s ability to extend innings have helped Miami avoid prolonged scoring droughts, even when overall averages hover in the middle tier. Their 4-6 mark in the last 10 games speaks to inconsistency, but the recent three wins in five highlight a turning point. This situational form combines with their ability to generate timely offense to keep them firmly in the betting mix.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 567
- Home Runs: 128
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.393
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 4.58
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 32-34 • Home Record: 31-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.8 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets own a strong 44-25 home record, and their 3-2 mark in the last five games has been fueled by 6.4 RPG. Pete Alonso’s run production has been central to their offensive rhythm, keeping them competitive in nearly every recent contest. However, even with steady scoring, they’ve allowed Miami to steal two recent meetings, exposing some vulnerabilities at this venue.
Juan Soto’s power and Francisco Lindor’s balanced hitting have boosted New York Mets’ consistency, but the Marlins have matched up well despite the Mets’ superior season record. Their 6-4 stretch in the last 10 games shows control, yet defensive lapses have opened the door for opponents to capitalize. Against a Miami side trending upward, relying solely on raw offensive numbers may not be enough to secure a win.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 618
- Home Runs: 177
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.751
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 28-37 • Home Record: 44-25
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 4–3 (Last 7 games)
- August 28, 2025: MIA 7 @ NYM 4
- April 09, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 0
- April 08, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 10
- April 07, 2025: MIA 0 @ NYM 2
- April 02, 2025: NYM 6 @ MIA 5
- April 01, 2025: NYM 2 @ MIA 4
- March 31, 2025: NYM 10 @ MIA 4
Over/Under Trends
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 9.8 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.1 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Marlins’ balanced offensive contributions from Kyle Stowers and Agustin Ramirez combined with a recent 3-2 stretch give them a sharper trajectory than the Mets despite New York Mets’ stronger overall record. With two wins in the last three head-to-head matchups, Miami has proven it can disrupt the Mets at home, making them the sharper moneyline side in this matchup.
Value-side alert: the Miami Marlins at +145 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the New York Mets at 6.4 RPG and the Miami Marlins at 3.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How does Parlamaz make Miami Marlins vs New York Mets MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
