MLB Prediction: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (Thursday, August 28 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIA | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +220 | -278 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (104) | -1.5 (-125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.2 | 7.4 |
| Record | 62–71 | 71–61 |
| Lines: BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel +2 more | ||
More MLB picks: Miami Marlins · New York Mets
The New York Mets have surged with 7.4 runs per game across their last five, but this MLB prediction points to the Miami Marlins as the sharper side thanks to their ability to disrupt at key moments despite inconsistent scoring. Miami Marlins’ recent 2-3 record points to the urgency to respond, and they’ve already proven capable of stealing wins in this matchup earlier in the season. With the Mets’ offense pushing totals high and Miami Marlins’ lineup featuring power from Kyle Stowers and depth from Agustin Ramirez, the value is aligned with a Marlins win and a game that clears the number.
Game Time
Game time: Thursday, August 28 at 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field, a pitcher-leaning venue with muted carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Miami Marlins: +220
- New York Mets: -278
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (+104)
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (-125)
Latest Team Records
Miami Marlins: 62-71 (Win %: 0.466)
New York Mets: 71-61 (Win %: 0.538)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.228 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.237 AVG, 11 HR, 59 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.264 AVG, 29 HR, 105 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 32 HR, 78 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.264 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
Team Analysis
Miami Marlins
The Marlins sit at 62-71, and their recent 2-3 stretch highlights a team still searching for rhythm. Scoring 3.2 RPG in that span signals inconsistency, but the presence of Kyle Stowers gives them a clear power threat capable of swinging momentum. Their road record of 31-34 shows they can compete outside of Miami, and that resilience sets them up as a dangerous underdog in this spot.
Agustin Ramirez’s ability to contribute timely power adds another layer to the lineup, while Otto Lopez has provided steady production despite team struggles. The last 10 games at 4-6 with 3.6 RPG indicate a need for sharper offensive execution, but this also reflects a team capable of hanging around in higher-scoring environments. With the Mets driving games toward higher totals, the Marlins’ offensive pieces are positioned to capitalize when opportunities arise.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 566
- Home Runs: 128
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.395
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 4.52
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 31-34 • Home Record: 31-37
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.6 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets’ 71-61 record is powered by a 44-24 home mark, making them a formidable opponent at Citi Field. Their recent 4-1 stretch with 7.4 RPG demonstrates explosive offense, with Pete Alonso consistently anchoring run production. That level of scoring confidence can overwhelm weaker pitching staffs, but it also drives totals higher than the market line.
Juan Soto’s consistent power and Francisco Lindor’s balanced contributions have complemented Alonso, giving the Mets a multi-pronged attack. Their 7-3 record over the last 10 games with 7.1 RPG further illustrates a team in rhythm, especially at home. However, this tendency to push games into double-digit combined runs opens the door for a Marlins upset if Miami Marlins’ lineup converts opportunities into runs.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 612
- Home Runs: 176
- OBP: 0.326
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.75
- ERA: 3.83
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 28-37 • Home Record: 44-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (7.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (7.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 4–2 (Last 6 games)
- April 09, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 0
- April 08, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 10
- April 07, 2025: MIA 0 @ NYM 2
- April 02, 2025: NYM 6 @ MIA 5
- April 01, 2025: NYM 2 @ MIA 4
- March 31, 2025: NYM 10 @ MIA 4
Over/Under Trends
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 9.5 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.0 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Marlins’ ability to grind out production despite a modest scoring clip positions them well against a Mets team that often pushes games into higher totals, creating volatility. With Stowers supplying power and the lineup showing enough resilience on the road, this is the spot where Miami capitalizes on Mets overexposure and delivers the sharper side of the wager.
Value-side alert: the Miami Marlins at +220 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the New York Mets have produced 7.4 RPG and the Miami Marlins 3.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
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Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How does Parlamaz make Miami Marlins vs New York Mets MLB predictions?
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