MLB Prediction: Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers — ALDS Game 4 (Wednesday, October 8 at 03:05 PM ET)
Series Context
Round: ALDS • Game: 4 • Series Score: Seattle leads 2–1
Home-Field: Detroit hosts at spacious Comerica Park, where deep alleys suppress power and amplify pitching precision. Pressure Meter: Elimination pressure sits squarely on Detroit, who must convert home control into survival leverage to force a Game 5.
Seattle’s road inconsistency and Detroit’s methodical approach set up a tight, low-scoring Game 4 outlook. The Mariners have averaged just 3.4 runs per game across their last five, while Detroit’s steady 3.2 RPG pace aligns with their disciplined contact strategy. With Seattle holding the 2–1 edge but struggling to generate offense away from T-Mobile Park, this matchup tilts toward a grind favoring the Tigers’ balanced roster and the Under on the total.
Game Time
Set for Wednesday, October 8 at 03:05 PM ET inside Comerica Park — one of MLB’s most spacious venues, reducing home-run carry and rewarding teams built on pitching depth.
Odds & Spread Line
- Seattle Mariners: -105
- Detroit Tigers: -115
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-204)
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: -1.5 (+170)
Latest Team Records
Seattle Mariners: 90–72 (Win %: 0.556)
Detroit Tigers: 87–75 (Win %: 0.537)
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners: Fully healthy with no major injury concerns reported.
Detroit Tigers: Missing Reese Olson (Shoulder – 60-Day IL).
Key Player Stats
Seattle Mariners
- Cal Raleigh: 0.247 AVG, 60 HR, 125 RBI
- Eugenio Suárez: 0.228 AVG, 49 HR, 118 RBI
- Julio Rodríguez: 0.267 AVG, 32 HR, 95 RBI
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.258 AVG, 36 HR, 111 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.240 AVG, 31 HR, 78 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.252 AVG, 26 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s 90-win campaign has been anchored by power and pitching, but their offense hasn’t traveled well. The Mariners are just 40–42 on the road and have produced 3.4 runs per game across their last five outings — a trend that continues to limit their postseason explosiveness. Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suárez remain the heavy lifters in the lineup, while Julio Rodríguez’s athleticism brings the spark that keeps them competitive in tight contests.
However, away from home, Seattle’s contact quality dips, and their run conversion falters. The club’s 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP show balance, but in Comerica Park’s deep confines, slugging-based teams often stall. Their 6–4 mark over the last ten remains solid, though most success came in Seattle. Unless they unlock early momentum, the Mariners’ profile fits a cautious offensive projection here.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 766
- Home Runs: 238
- OBP: 0.320
- SLG: 0.420
- OPS: 0.740
- ERA: 3.87
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 40–42 • Home Record: 52–31
Last 5 Games: 2–3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6–4 (4.5 RPG)
Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s 46–36 home record underscores their control at Comerica Park, where patient offense and solid bullpen work keep them in games late. The Tigers’ 2–3 stretch (3.2 RPG) mirrors their conservative scoring rhythm, but the contact depth of Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter has proven steady against elite pitching.
Their 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP highlight a rotation capable of neutralizing power bats, and the defensive metrics align with a club built for suppression. Detroit’s 5–5 record in the last 10 is balanced, showing durability under playoff pressure. Their formula — slow pace, disciplined at-bats, and home-field composure — sets up a game that likely grinds under the total and tilts toward the Tigers’ stability.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 758
- Home Runs: 198
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.413
- OPS: 0.730
- ERA: 3.95
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 44–42 • Home Record: 46–36
Last 5 Games: 2–3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5–5 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Seattle Mariners lead 6–2 (Last 8 Games)
- October 07, 2025: SEA 8 @ DET 4
- October 05, 2025: DET 2 @ SEA 3
- October 04, 2025: DET 3 @ SEA 2
- July 13, 2025: SEA 8 @ DET 4
- July 12, 2025: SEA 15 @ DET 7
- July 11, 2025: SEA 12 @ DET 3
- April 02, 2025: DET 2 @ SEA 3
- April 01, 2025: DET 4 @ SEA 1
Over/Under Trends
Seattle Mariners’ last 10 games have averaged 7.8 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 6.4 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Detroit Tigers’ home advantage, combined with bullpen reliability and situational hitting, makes them the sharper side in this ALDS Game 4. While Seattle holds the series lead, their road splits continue to show vulnerabilities in contact rate and conversion efficiency. Detroit’s control of pace and late-game execution points toward evening the series.
Pick: Detroit Tigers -115 — home survival pick with value in a pressure spot.
Over/Under Prediction
Over their last five, Detroit has averaged 3.2 RPG and Seattle 3.4, combining for just 6.6 runs per game — below today’s total of 8.5. With both clubs leaning on strong pitching depth and Comerica Park limiting power, the setup clearly trends below the number.
Pick: Under 8.5
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
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