MLB Prediction: Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets (Sunday, August 17 at 07:45 PM ET)
Introduction
More MLB picks: Seattle Mariners · New York Mets
Seattle enters this interleague matchup analysis against New York with a 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games, averaging 4.7 runs per contest, signaling a lineup finding rhythm at the right time. The Mets have stumbled with just 2 wins in their last 10 despite putting up 6.8 runs per game across the last 5, highlighting defensive issues that keep them vulnerable. This MLB prediction leans toward Seattle Mariners’ steadier form and offensive balance, with both teams’ recent scoring pace pointing clearly toward value on the Over.
Game Time
This one goes at Sunday, August 17 at 07:45 PM ET at Citi Field, a pitcher-leaning venue with muted carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Seattle Mariners: -123
- New York Mets: +104
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+136)
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-164)
Latest Team Records
Seattle Mariners: 68-56 (Win %: 0.548)
New York Mets: 65-58 (Win %: 0.528)
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners are missing Jonathan Hernandez (Undisclosed), listed as Day-To-Day; Logan Evans (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL.
The New York Mets are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Seattle Mariners
- Cal Raleigh: 0.25 AVG, 46 HR, 100 RBI
- Eugenio Suarez: 0.235 AVG, 38 HR, 94 RBI
- Josh Naylor: 0.289 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.268 AVG, 28 HR, 100 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.252 AVG, 30 HR, 71 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.255 AVG, 24 HR, 70 RBI
Team Analysis
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners’ 7-3 run over their last 10 games shows a team trending upward, with their offense averaging nearly five runs per game during that span. Even with a 2-3 record across the last 5, the underlying production remains steady, making them a dangerous road side. Cal Raleigh’s power and Eugenio Suarez’s run-driving ability anchor a lineup that has proven capable of manufacturing scoring in key moments.
Seattle Mariners’ road record sits at an even 31-31, and that balance suggests they can compete effectively away from home. Josh Naylor’s consistency at the plate adds a reliable contact presence to complement the long-ball threats. With run support holding firm and their pitching staff keeping games manageable, the Mariners bring a sharper form than their opponent into this interleague test.
- Batting Average: 0.243
- Total Runs Scored: 566
- Home Runs: 175
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.41
- OPS: 0.73
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 31-31 • Home Record: 37-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.7 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets have stumbled to a 2-8 mark in their last 10, and while their offense has produced nearly five runs per game across that stretch, defensive breakdowns have prevented those numbers from translating into wins. Pete Alonso continues to drive runs at an elite rate, but the imbalance between run scoring and run prevention has left them vulnerable at home. Their 2-3 record in the last 5 games emphasizes the inconsistency that has plagued them despite a strong overall home mark.
At 40-24 on their own field, the Mets are generally reliable at Citi Field, but recent form suggests cracks in execution. Juan Soto has added pop while Francisco Lindor contributes steady production, yet results have not followed. Against a Mariners team carrying more balanced momentum, New York Mets’ reliance on outscoring opponents has proven unsustainable over the past two weeks.
- Batting Average: 0.242
- Total Runs Scored: 547
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.414
- OPS: 0.734
- ERA: 3.79
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 25-34 • Home Record: 40-24
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (4.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- August 16, 2025: SEA 1 @ NYM 3
- August 15, 2025: SEA 11 @ NYM 9
Over/Under Trends
Seattle Mariners’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Seattle Mariners’ steadier 7-3 stretch combined with a balanced scoring profile makes them the sharper side against a Mets team that has dropped 8 of its last 10 despite strong run production. With Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez supplying reliable power and Josh Naylor providing consistent contact, the Mariners bring a more complete offensive arsenal into this matchup. Their ability to win on the road and outlast opponents in high-scoring situations positions them as the superior moneyline play.
Markets point to the Seattle Mariners as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the New York Mets are at 6.8 RPG and the Seattle Mariners at 3.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 10.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward a Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 17, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays — smart ones. Build them from real edges, keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
