Introduction

More MLB picks: Seattle Mariners · Cleveland Guardians

Seattle enters this matchup analysis with a 3-2 mark over its last five while averaging 6.8 runs per game, a clear sign their offense is driving results at the right time. Cleveland, meanwhile, has stayed afloat at 3-2 in its last five but delivered only 2.4 runs per contest, exposing a lack of scoring depth. With Seattle Mariners’ bats producing at a far higher clip and Cleveland struggling to generate consistent offense, the Mariners hold the sharper edge in this MLB prediction.

Game Time

First pitch comes at Saturday, August 30 at 07:15 PM ET at Progressive Field, conditions can swing totals.

Odds & Spread Line

• Seattle Mariners: -167
• Cleveland Guardians: +135

Total: 7.5

• Run Line — Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+116)
• Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-140)

Latest Team Records

Seattle Mariners: 72-62 (Win %: 0.537)
Cleveland Guardians: 66-66 (Win %: 0.5)

Injury Report

The Seattle Mariners are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Cleveland Guardians are missing Will Brennan (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Seattle Mariners

• Cal Raleigh: 0.244 AVG, 50 HR, 107 RBI
• Eugenio Suarez: 0.237 AVG, 42 HR, 104 RBI
• Julio Rodriguez: 0.263 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI

Cleveland Guardians

• Jose Ramirez: 0.284 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI
• Kyle Manzardo: 0.231 AVG, 21 HR, 57 RBI
• Steven Kwan: 0.271 AVG, 10 HR, 41 RBI

Team Analysis

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners arrive at this contest with a 72-62 record and a recent 3-2 stretch, producing 6.8 runs per game in that span. That level of output highlights their ability to string together consistent offense, and it has been fueled by hitters like Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez who continue to deliver power in key moments. With a road mark of 31-36, this group has shown it can still manufacture runs away from home, and their recent scoring profile supports confidence.

Looking deeper, Julio Rodriguez has been an important spark, ensuring Seattle Mariners’ lineup doesn’t rely solely on long balls. Their last 10 games show a 4-6 record while still managing 5.1 runs per game, which proves their bats are producing even when results lag. That underlying run creation makes them the more reliable moneyline side against a Cleveland team that has struggled to keep pace offensively.

• Batting Average: 0.241
• Total Runs Scored: 616
• Home Runs: 191
• OBP: 0.317
• SLG: 0.41
• OPS: 0.728
• ERA: 3.97
• WHIP: 1.26

Away Record: 31-36 • Home Record: 41-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.1 RPG)

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians sit at an even 66-66, but their last five games show a 3-2 record with just 2.4 runs per game, pointing to an offense that has been ineffective. Jose Ramirez remains their most consistent threat, though he has lacked lineup support to drive higher scoring totals. Their 34-32 home record shows they can compete in this venue, yet the lack of consistent run production places them at a disadvantage against a team generating nearly three times the recent scoring output.

Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan have provided flashes, but overall Cleveland Guardians’ attack has not translated into sustained rallies. Across their last 10 contests, they’ve gone 4-6 while averaging only 2.5 runs, a glaring indicator of a lineup slump. That level of inconsistency makes it difficult to back them against a Seattle offense that has proven capable of overwhelming opponents with volume run production.

• Batting Average: 0.224
• Total Runs Scored: 508
• Home Runs: 133
• OBP: 0.295
• SLG: 0.366
• OPS: 0.661
• ERA: 3.93
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 33-34 • Home Record: 34-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.5 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Seattle Mariners lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)

• August 29, 2025: SEA 4 @ CLE 5
• June 15, 2025: CLE 0 @ SEA 6
• June 14, 2025: CLE 3 @ SEA 4
• June 13, 2025: CLE 2 @ SEA 7

Over/Under Trends

Seattle Mariners’ last 10 games have averaged 10.9 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.

Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 7.0 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Seattle Mariners’ recent scoring pace, head-to-head command, and ability to generate runs on the road position them as the sharper side. With Cleveland Guardians’ offense averaging barely over two runs across the last 10 games, Seattle Mariners’ depth and power-driven lineup make them the clear moneyline play.

This sets up cleanly for the Seattle Mariners to finish on top.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Cleveland Guardians have produced 2.4 RPG and the Seattle Mariners 6.8. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.

Bookmakers

You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, Caesars, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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